The Middle East holds its breath on eve of Iran Sanctions

No one knows how Tehran will respond to the sanctions being imposed on it this week. Throughout the Middle East coverage of the event is more muted than one would expect, perhaps because adversaries are concerned about too much gloating while friends are afraid to giving the US too much credit.

On Monday sanctions will hit 700 Iranian entities, according to reports. The US sanctions are opposed by many countries, including the EU which has said it regrets the imposition of sanctions, many of which were lifted as part of the 2015 Iran deal. But reactions in the Middle East are more complex. Saudi Arabia and its allies tend to support the US and oppose Iran’s actions in the region. A review of the region’s responses shows that the public response to the sanctions has been modest.

In the UAE, a close ally of Washington, The National notes that Abu Dhabi will increase oil production after discovering new large reserves. That should settle oil markets who are concerned about US sanctions targeting Iranian oil. The US had previously indicated in August it wanted Iran oil exports to go down to “zero.” But the UAE announcement says that production will increase to 5 million barrels per day by 2030, which is a long time in the future. Clearly the announcement is timed to coincide with the sanctions, but the articles about it don’t mention the sanctions. Instead another article looks at the US granting waivers to “8 buyers” of Iranian crude. Who they are is not clear. The UAE is one of the top importers of Iranian oil alongside Chine, India, South Korea, Turkey, and Italy, the article notes.

Kuwait’s Al-Jarida also carried the 5 million barrel increase story and has a more interesting story about Iran’s Guardian Council refusing to accept a law that would have tamped down on terror finance. Tehran had passed the law to align itself with UN guidelines and apparently this would help Iran’s banking links “with the world,” an important necessity for Tehran as sanctions kick in. But the council, “controlled by conservatives,” said the law is contrary to “Islamic legislation and the constitution.”

Qatar’s Al-Jazeera has several articles critical of the sanctions. It highlights protests in Tehran calling for “death to America,” part of a series of events Iran is holding to commemorate the 1979 hostage crises. In addition it has an article about Iran’s Ayatollah Khamanei condemning the US for its 40 years of struggle against Iran. Qatar and its media are involved in a major confrontation with Saudi Arabia and Riyadh and it has made Qatar more sympathetic to Iran over the last year, clearly reflected in the narrative pushed from Doha.

In Saudi Arabia Al-Arabiya doesn’t highlight the sanctions, but does have an article about how Tehran rejected the law against terror finance. In English the site also contains almost nothing about the sanctions, except an article about Iran’s rally marking the 1979 hostage crises.

In Jordan Al-Ghad has nothing on the sanctions and in Egypt Al-Ahram the main story is mourning the victims of an attack on Coptic pilgrims. However one article notes that the US has called on Iran to “use its intelligence and return to the negotiating table.”

Turkey, which opposes Iran’s policies in Syria but has grown closer to Russia and Iran over the last year, has pro-government media that has covered the sanctions briefly. These include basic facts about what is being sanctioned. Daily Sabah claimed that Israel’s Prime Minister is “overjoyed” by the sanctions. Also the newspaper reports that Iran Air is looking to buy jets from non-US companies. Iran’s regime, whose official slogan is “death to America,” has been purchasing US commercial jets in the past. On the oped pages Turkish writers are deeply interested in the sanctions. Sadik Unay at Daily Sabah thinks the sanctions might end the US dollar’s world dominance. Another article claims that while Tehran has sent its militias across the region to “fuel chaos,” that the US is working with an “Arab-Israeli bloc” against Tehran. Of particular interest, Hurriyet says that Turkey is one of the 8 country’s exempt from the sanctions on oil. Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez said that Turkey would continue to import Iranian oil. South Korea, India and Japan are on the list as well.

The general sense across the region tends to be a “wait and see” to the sanctions. Iran and the pro-Iranian nexus that includes Hezbollah and the Syrian regime sees the US action as punitive and harming average Iranians. But those who oppose Iran’s increasing role in the region tend to sympathize with the US sanctions. However there are concerns about where Iran might seek to spread instability or strike at the US and its allies in response. In Iraq, for instance, the government has rejected US comments about Iranian-backed militias, called the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are part of the Iraqi paramilitary units. Iraq will find itself on the frontline of Iranian sanctions and it is possible that Tehran could seek to pressure the US in Iraq, leveraging calls by some Iraqi parliamentarians for US forces to leave.

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