Iran violated deal, so what now? – analysis

On Monday, two weeks ahead of the four-year anniversary of the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran announced that it had breached the agreement and had exceeded the 300kg limit on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium.

Tehran might be testing Washington but it’s Israel which is keeping a close eye on the recent developments.

In late June the IDF was reported to have stepped up its alert status amid concerns that Iran might try to attack Israel through one of it’s proxies as tensions spiraled between Tehran and Washington.

Israel is surrounded by Iranian proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, militia groups in Syria and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.  Between them, there are tens of thousands of rockets that can strike deep into Israel’s home front.

While an attack by Iranian proxies is a major concern for the IDF, it’s Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs that worry Israel’s defense establishment the most.

During his tenure as IDF Chief of Staff, Gadi Eisenkot was cautiously optimistic about the deal-with all its faults- and noted several times that Iran had not violated the JCPOA and that if it would violate the agreement, Israel would know.

But, in an interview with Haaretz last year he said that Israel “assumes that Iran can operate secretly. Therefore, keeping watch on developments there is the No. 1 mission for both the IDF and intelligence agencies. We are investing vast resources in obtaining the best intelligence about Iran and its operational ability.”

The announcement by Iran on Monday came shortly after the head of Israel’s famed Mossad agency, Yossi Cohen said that Iranian claims that enriching uranium is just for medical research or energy are “flat out lies,” stating that the Iran deal was a bad deal. “Only clear determination to stop it from getting a nuclear can stop it.”

He illustrated his point by pointing out that Iran is “obsessive” about ballistic missile developments and that the nuclear deal has an end date which permits Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

In June the head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Tamir Heiman said that even if Iran leaves the 2015 nuclear deal it may still fail to obtain a nuclear bomb but already back before the deal was signed, Israel’s military had plans ready to go.

Different plans had been readied over the years, including when Ehud Barak served as defense minister in the Olmert and Netanyahu governments (2007-2013) and had ordered then IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi to prepare a plan for a “surgical strike” to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.

But according to Barak’s autobiography Israel didn’t have the capabilities to carry out a successful strike- it lacked bunker busting bombs (Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility, Natanz, is deep underground) and aerial refueling aircraft.

Two years after Barak left office, plans were once again on the table. But Israel still did not have those bunker busting bombs or aerial refuelers. Nevertheless Israeli military planners were confident that military intelligence and the air force had the strength necessary to damage Iran’s nuclear plans.

Four years later, Israel has strengthened its military might and through it’s war-between-war activities in Syria has confronted Hezbollah, Iran and Iranian-backed militias numerous times.

Israel has also been able to use new military equipment in the war-between-wars, including the stealth F-35i Adir fighter jets of which The Israeli Air Force currently has 14 and was the first to use the jet in combat operations.

The stealth jets have an extremely low radar signature allowing the jet to operate undetected deep inside enemy territory as well as evade advanced missile defense systems. With close air-support capabilities and a massive array of sensors, pilots of the stealth jet have unparalleled access to information while in the air.

On Monday Marillyn Hewson, Chairman, President and CEO of Lockheed Martin said that the F-35i have “proven its value as an elevated sensor for coordinating advanced air and missile defense systems” and are “particularly critical to countering Hezbollah’s vast rocket threat through rapid identification and prioritization of targets for the IAF.”

The stealth jets complement Israel’s other fighter squadrons of F-15 and F-16 jets during missions deep in enemy territory, including any possible attack against Iran.

“In the early phases of a conflict, F-35s can fly as the first fighters to penetrate contested airspace and destroy multiple air and ground threats. This then clears the way for the F-35 to enter the battlespace carrying up to 18,000 pounds of internal and external ordnance, in a mix that can include 5,000-pound-class weapons and beyond,” Hewson said.

In addition to the latest jets the IDF has also the supersonic Rampage stand-off air-to-surface missiles which features a warhead which was designed for optimal penetration capabilities, allowing for the destruction of targets inside bunkers.

Dubbed “The Rampage” after a popular video-game, the missile developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Israel Military Industry Systems (IMI) is a supersonic, long range accurate air-to-ground assault missile with a warhead, rocket engine and advanced navigation suit which allows for precision targeting.

The missile can be fitted to the Israel Air Force’s F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and is meant to be dropped outside areas protected by air-defense systems.

“If you take the Middle East arena and areas protected by air defense systems, the whole point of this missile is that it can targets within standoff ranges” without threatening the launching platform, Amit Haimovich, director of marketing and business development for IAI’s MALAM engineering told The Jerusalem Post last year.

Due to the combination of the Rampage’s speed and physical form factor “it can be detected but it is very hard to intercept,” he added.

According to foreign reports the Rampage was used to completely destroy a possible Iranian surface-to-surface missile factory in a Syrian base in the country’s Masyaf in April.

So is Israel now ready? Will it now change it’s strategic risk management and place Iranian nuclear facilities in the crosshairs once again? They may be that perfect target for Israel’s F-35 jets fitted with Rampage.

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