Ten takeaways from Nasrallah’s speech

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke this week on the annual commemoration of the 2006 war with Israel. He touched on many issues of local, regional and international importance. It shows how Hezbollah has become more influential and how it sees itself as the vanguard of Iranian power, a partner that not only threatens Israel but also views itself as a proud part of an “axis of resistance” against the US and US allies.

Among the topics discussed were Hezbollah’s reduced presence in Syria, how it could threaten Israel in the air and at sea, and that the US was seeking to communicate with Hezbollah, despite sanctioning its members of the Lebanese parliament. Unsurprisingly Nasrallah says he is confident of victory in any future war with Israel, hinting that Hezbollah will also seek to defend Lebanese airspace from Israeli planes and that it has new offensive capabilities.

The following takeaways from his speech are based on a transcript from Iran’s Fars News and other quotes from his speech.

“We are prepared to invade the Galilee”

Nasrallah said that there are scenarios or plans that are ready to be implemented that would foresee the invasion of the Galilee by Hezbollah. This threat is not surprising since Hezbollah has been aiming for years to try to use the next conflict to grab and hold some territory. It built tunnels under the border of northern Israel that were discovered as part of Israel’s Operation Northern Shield.

Nasrallah’s goal in mentioning the Galilee is to frighten Israel and provoke some kind of response. It wants to also make it seem like it has a military on par with Israel and that it seriously believes in some future battle that it can win a conventional war and take and hold land. This is part of Hezbollah’s fantasy after fighting seriously in Syria during the civil war where its units did fight a conventional military war. In that case they were fighting the Syrian rebels though.

The 2006 war with Israel got Lebanon 13 years of security

Hezbollah thinks the 2006 war was a success and it pays lip service to this theory. It argues that Lebanon got “security” out of the war. Israel too believes that the war got 13 years of quiet on the northern border so far. This is interesting. It means Hezbollah prefer the quiet and security that it thinks it “bought” through the war. But what security did it bring? Lebanon was secure in 2005 before Hezbollah attacked Israel. It was Hezbollah that provoked the war and the group wants to re-write history. In fact Hezbollah used the ware to refurbish its image, tarnished in 2005 by the assassination of Rafic Harari and the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. Hezbollah was weak in 2006 and concerned about its future war. The attack on Israel was meant to deflect from its weakened position.

Today Hezbollah is stronger than ever. Strong in parliament and on the ground with its military installation and arms build-up and acting as Lebanon’s own expeditionary army fighting in Syria. It is slowly consuming Lebanon, until Lebanon will be more an appendage of Hezbollah’s power than the other way around.

“Our offensive power has multiplied”

Hezbollah openly boasts about its abilities. Nasrallah admits that I 2006 it had “limited” attack abilities. Now it claims to have drones and new advances on land, sea and air. Much of this comes from Iran. This includes precision guidance for missiles and other technology. Hezbollah says that its missiles are more accurate. This indicates that Hezbollah’s boasts about being able to reach all of Israel amid estimates of it having 150,000 rockets may be reasonable. Hezbollah clearly wants us to think so.

A new war will set the Middle East ablaze

Nasrallah says that a new war will have greater consequences than in 2006. This means an arc of conflict from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen is what Hezbollah has in mind. It argues that all the forces of the region that are pro-Iran will be arrayed against Israel. This likely means Shi’ite paramilitaries in Iraq and threatening Israel from Syria.

Hezbollah is now planning for a scenario of aa war between the US and Iran and that Hezbollah will be part of that war by fighting Israel. “Israel will not be neutral and when the war begins against Iran, this war will begin in the entire region.” Hezbollah sees itself now as a major piece on a chessboard against the US and Israel, which is also how Iran tends to see its own strategy. This shows how clearly Nasrallah has developed a worldview and where he sees Hezbollah’s role as key.

Hezbollah opposes a US-Iran war, threatens UAE

Nasrallah says that it is important to prevent a US-Iran war and that neither the US or Iran want a war. This is what Shi’ite paramilitary leader Hadi al-Amiri has also said in Iraq and shows message discipline among pro-Iran groups. They don’t want war because they also fear its consequences. Iran does not fear a solution but will not speak directly with the US, Nasrallah says. He points out that during the tensions after Iran downed a US drone in June that Iran’s threats resulted in the US foregoing retaliation. This isn’t the way the US sees the situation, but Hezbollah believes that both the US and Israel fear a new war.

Nasrallah noted that a war with Iran will affect the whole region and feigned worries about the markets in the UAE. This is a veiled threat to Abu Dhabi.

The deal of the century was a failure

Nasrallah said that Saudi Arabia was so afraid to host the deal of the century meeting in Riyadh that it got Bahrain to host the recent summit. Nasrallah claimed that Jared Kushner has admitted the Bahrain meeting was a failure. It also says that Hezbollah wants to see the deal fail. Nasrallah is deeply interested in Jerusalem and angry that the US moved its embassy. He says that Muslims and Christian Palestinians both oppose the US and Israel. This is part of Hezbollah’s attempt to bridge the sectarian bubble and reach out to other religions.

Iran will never leave Syria but Hezbollah will reduce forces

Nasrallah says the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has won the war. This victory was achieved by help from Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. “Iran will never leave Syria,” Nasrallah claims. He also says that Israel is lying when it says it is targeting weapons shipped by Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. “I tell them that weapons have arrived and that Israel is deceiving its people.” He says Israel is involved in a military adventure in Syria. He warned Israel that when the S-300 air defense system is operational then Israel will be “playing o the edge of the fire.”

Hezbollah wants Russia to stop Israel’s attacks but he is careful about the Russia issue. What he wants to emphasize is that the Syrian regime is on the path to victory and that Hezbollah can draw down its forces.

“We are friends with Russia, but…”

Nasrallah said that Iran’s exit from Syria is not in the interest of Russia. He argued that reports of clashes between Russia and Iran in Syria are fake news. Then he argued that in Syria Hezbollah does not take or give orders to Russia. This is a kind of distancing of Hezbollah and Iran from Russia’s role. Nasrallah also claimed to meet Assad but not reveal the times for security reasons. All this shows that Hezbollah is playing a complex game in Syria. Reducing its forces while trying to paint over Russia-Iran tensions and hoping that Russia will let Syria use the S-300 against Israel. In fact Nasrallah even implies that Hezbollah should take over air defense of Lebanon.

“We don’t care about US sanctions”

The US recently designated several Hezbollah members of Lebanon’s parliament as terrorists. But Nasrallah points out that Hezbollah has been designated and sanctions since the 1980s. He is proud that the group is being sanctions. The sanctions do not affect Hezbollah he claims. “We have options to advance our affairs.

Yemen’s Houthis are good, the UK is bad

Nasrallah praised the Houthi rebels in Yemen and condemned the UK for its role in seizing an Iranian oil tanker. Both comments show the regional and global aspirations of Hezbollah to play a role in policy making across the world. The various statements about Iran’s policies indicate how closely aligned and coordinated Nasrallah’s speech was with Iran. Hezbollah is starting to think of itself as a major player, even more important than a state. It doesn’t speak as a member of parliament or just a group, but with pretensions to be on the world stage, beside Israel, the US, Iran and Russia. It seems to imply it is more powerful and important than Lebanon itself.

Join Jerusalem Post Premium Plus now for just $5 and upgrade your experience with an ads-free website and exclusive content. Click here>>