Trump’s Bolton removal leaves Pompeo as the last man standing around Trump

US National Security Advisor John Bolton became the latest to be ejected from the Trump administration. Unceremoniously fired on Tuesday, he joined Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, H.R McMaster and other high profile departures. For hardliners on Iran his dramatic removal could be a sign that US President Donald Trump will shift to a more moderate position, but with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo still running the ball on Iran sanctions, it’s hard to imagine a major change.

Bolton came into the administration as part of the second string of hires after Trump’s first team appeared shaky in the spring of 2018. He was appointed on March 22, 2018 a week after Pompeo was called up from CIA to run State on March 13. It took until April to confirm Pompeo. Bolton was seen as an Iran hawk who had previously been UN Ambassador under George W. Bush, appointed in 2005. Bolton was seen as the one trying to “goad” Iran into war, accused of being “desperate” for war. Whether this was accurate is not entirely clear, but perception is often as important in Washington and in Tehran. When Trump called off Iran strikes on June 20, in the wake of the downing of a US drone, it was clear that the Bolton agenda might be on the rocks.

There have been rumors over the last year about daylight between Trump and Bolton that almost portrayed the two as involved in separate agendas. This would be strange for a National Security Advisor who is supposed to be close to the President. In the last days of August it was reported by the Washington Post that Bolton was sidelined from Afghan policy. But Trump cancelled the Taliban peace talks and high profile sit down anyway, so it’s not clear what the sidelining meant. CNN reported that Pompeo and Bolton were no longer speaking four days ago.

It now appears Trump, going into 2019, will need yet another new team. He lost Defense Secretary James Mattis in December 2018 over his Syrian policy. Patrick Shanahan, who was supposed to replace Mattis, only lasted six months. Jason Greenblatt, who was supposed to be pushing the Deal of the Century with the Palestinians also is leaving. The Afghan deal envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad may not be at the helm much longer. If this were an episode of Survivor, it would time to combine the tribes. In an administration that sometimes seems a bit more like it was scripted for reality TV in an era of social media driving politics, these things matter.

Bolton’s predecessor H.R McMaster, a competent hire who is largely forgotten as the man who steadied the ship for the first year of Trump’s tenure, is emblematic of the revolving door. He replaced Michal Flynn who had to leave due to a scandal in the first days of the administration. It’s easy to forget that  Trump’s second Chief of Staff, John Kelly, left in January. He, like McMaster, sought to steady things. Mick Mulvaney is still acting Chief of Staff.

The big question mark is if Bolton’s departure will also eventually erode Pompeo’s agenda or if Pompeo will simply assume more power now. Having gone from CIA to State he has eclipsed both. He has also brought in a competent team with Brian Hook to play linebacker for Iran issues, and Jim Jeffrey to deal with Turkey and ISIS and Syria issues, alongside Joel Rayburn who is Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Levant Affairs. On foreign policy, whether dealing with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, Iran or Syria, Pompeo has proved a center of gravity. But The Washington Post reports that he may be eying a political future. There are thoughts he could run for Senate. But why would he do that when he is the administration’s rock?

Bolton warned Iran frequently, talking about not mistaking prudence for weakness, warning of hell to pay and there would be “serious consequences.” He also warned foreign countries not to meddle in Venezuela against US policy. His departure will be seen in Tehran and Caracas as signaling that the more isolationist tendencies of Trump have won out. That may not be accurate and those countries should not test the US, as the Taliban learned.