New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll: Majority of Voters Oppose Impeachment and Removal in Battlegrounds

A New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll released on Wednesday shows residents of six battleground states oppose impeaching and removing President Trump from office by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin, but support the House impeachment inquiry by a 51 percent to 44 percent margin.

Broken down even further, the poll’s results show that 42 percent of respondents oppose both the House impeachment inquiry and impeaching and removing the president, while 41 percent support both the House impeachment inquiry and impeaching and removing the president. Eight percent of respondents support the House impeachment inquiry but oppose impeaching and removing the president, while nine percent were categorized having “other” views.

Registered voters in six key battleground states–Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were surveyed in the poll.

The somewhat contradictory results that show a majority oppose the impeachment and removal of the president from office by an eight point margin, while a majority support the House impeachment inquiry by a seven point margin may be explained by the framing of the questions asked respondent.

The first question is posed as follows:

Do you support or oppose impeaching President Trump and removing him from office?

The second question is posed in this way:

Do you support or oppose the impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives?

That framing of the second question may be understood by the 25 percent of respondents who say, when questioned, how closely they are following the discussion of President Trump, the Ukraine, and impeachment either “not closely” or “not at all” to be similar to a broader question regarding the ability of the House of Representatives to conduct oversight hearings of the administration.

A more precise understanding of voter sentiment towards the current House impeachment inquiry would be elicited by framing the question this way:

Do you agree with Republican criticisms that the current House impeachment inquiry is a sham process that denies the president his due process rights?

Several elements of the poll’s methodology were unusual.

First, the poll was conducted over 14 days, covering the two week period from October 13 to October 26.

Most polls provide a sample of opinion during a very tight snapshot of time–typically two to four days–because intervening events over longer periods of time can influence the opinions of respondents.

Second, the results of the portion of the poll conduted during the first eight days of polling–covering the period October 13 to October 20–were released as a separate poll last week. During those eight days, a total of 1,934 respondents were questioned, but, as Breitbart News reported, cross tab results at a state level were not released.

During that first eight day period, 53 percent of respondents opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 43 percent supported it. Fifty percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 45 percent opposed it.

The poll results released on Wednesday apparently added the results from 1,832 respondents surveyed during the six days from October 21 to October 26 to the results from the 1,934 respondents surveyed during the eight days from October 13 to October 20 reported in the first iteration of the poll released last week.

The poll results released on Wednesday did provide cross tab results, broken down by state, as follows:

In Arizona, where 652 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 23, 52 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 45 percent supported it. Fifty-three percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 40 percent opposed it.

In Florida, where 650 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 26, 53 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 42 percent supported it. Forty-nine percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 44 percent opposed it.

In Michigan, where 501 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 25, 51 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 42 percent supported it. Fifty percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 46 percent opposed it.

In North Carolina, where 651 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 26, 53 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 43 percent supported it. Fifty percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 45 percent opposed it.

In Pennsylvania, where 661 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 25, 52 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 45 percent supported it. Fifty-three percent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 44 percent opposed it.

In Wisconsin, where 651 registered voters responded to the survey between October 13 and October 26, 51 percent opposed impeaching and removing the president, while 45 percent supported it. Fifty- perceonent supported the House impeachment inquiry, while 44 percent opposed it.

The methodology of the poll was summarized in Wednesday’s press release as follows:

This New York Times Upshot/Siena College Battleground Polls were conducted October 13-26, 2019 by telephone calls in English and Spanish to 3,766 voters across Arizona (652), Florida (650), Michigan (501), North Carolina (651), Pennsylvania (661) and Wisconsin (651). Voters were weighted within each state by age, education, gender, likely voter probability, state region, party imputation and race/ethnicity.

State samples were aggregated to form the Battleground and weighted such that each state formed an equal percentage of the ‘Battleground.’. This Battleground poll has a margin of error of +/-1.7 percentage points subject to the design effects of weighting. Individual state margins of error are: AZ, +/- 4.4, +/- FL, +/- 4.4, MI, +/- 5.1, NC, +/- 4.4, PA, +/- 4.4, WI, +/- 4.4 . Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones.

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