We have been closely following the Iraninan plane incident. A few days ago, we reported that on the basis of Arabic-language media sources, it came out that the US and Iran discussed public attacks against each other that were proportionate so long as people were not killed.
This resulted in a firestorm of media attention, with many people declaring that World War III was imminent. However, we at Shoebat.com begged to differ, as the incident appeared to us to be a direct replication of the Iran-Contra scandal in which the US and Iran worked together to permit a crisis that elevated Reagan to the presidency, gave power to the hardcore Iranian nationalists, and had the US and Iran engage in arms deals of which the money earned by the CIA was used to fund US-backed right-wing death squads in Nicaragua called Contras who were at war with the USSR-backed Sandinistas. Given this history and the impeding 2020 election, in which Trump needs the support of the public, we surmised that this would be a giant public relations opportunity for him.
Thus far, these suspicions seem to be shown to be correct, as in spite of Trump’s rhetoric, he seems to be positioning himself as a “peacemaker” by “de-escalating the crisis” when in reality it seems to be that the US and Iran who orchestrated the crisis for the purpose of helping each other.
Even as Trump was rage-tweeting on Jan 4, two days after the killing of Iran’s top military leader Qassem Soleimani, that he would hit 52 targets including Iranian heritage sites for potential retaliation if America suffered losses following an Iranian attack, warning that “those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD”, the US president was busy, secretly using an encrypted back-channel to bring the world back from the brink of war.
As the WSJ reports, just hours after the U.S. strike which killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Trump administration sent an urgent back channel message to Tehran: “Don’t escalate.” The encrypted fax message was sent via the Swiss Embassy in Iran, one of the few means of direct, confidential communication between the two sides, U.S. officials told the WSJ. Then, in frantic attempts to de-escalate even as top US and Iranian leaders were stirring patriotic sentiment and nationalistic fervor, the White House and Iranian leaders exchanged further messages in the days that followed, which officials in both countries described as far more measured than the fiery rhetoric traded publicly by politicians.
It worked: a week later, and after a retaliatory, if highly theatrical, Iranian missile attack on two military bases hosting American troops that purposefully inflicted no casualties, Washington and Tehran have stepped back from the brink of open hostilities (for now). (source)
We are wondering if another “arms-for-hostages” deal will come out of this, albeit naturally in a different form, of which the biggest “hostage” today is German business interests in Iran.
It has been clear that the US has worked aggressively to stop Germany from pursuing business interests in Iran, going so far as to even threaten sanctions against her. This seems to be related to US attempts to prevent German collusion with Russia, for as we have noted, the greatest threat to US global power would be combined Russo-German alliance as it could lead to the formation of a united European military that the US could not fight and while able to defend herself, could not indulge in her imperial activities such as she does now.
This flies in the face of what some consider “popular wisdom”, which is that Germany and France are “weak” nations. The fact is the opposite- both are deadly strong, and Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe, with a very developed economy, who could remilitarize in a matter of days to weeks if she wanted to. She has a long history of war, and there is no reason to believe that she will stop.
The US and Russia are locked in a struggle for world power just as the British and Russian Empires were two centuries ago. Russia is in a very weak position, but if she had Germany allied to her, she would get the support of Turkey and France, and could stand up to the US. If Russia does not get Germany, then it is possible that she will fall apart and be conquered.
This is the main reason for the conflict in Ukraine, and the US opposition to the “Steinmeyer” agreement, which the Russians support, because to bring peace in Ukraine and especially the separation of the easternmost parts of Ukraine for political reasons as Germanic powers and Russia have carved up Poland and Ukraine so many times before, would result in closer German-Russia ties and could lead to a revival of a Molotov-Ribbentrop type agreement, which is what the Americans fear.
The struggle right now seems to be over who can best keep Germany on their “side” for the purpose of a future conflict. Germany seems to know this and is playing both the Americans and the Russians, seeking whoever will best satisfy her interests.
This is where things become interesting. The above story notes about the situation that Trump has been speaking to the Iranians by way of the Swiss, who have business dealings in Iran.
It’s not the first time the Swiss have helped pull back the middle east from the brink of mushroom clouds: they have served as messengers between Washington and Tehran since 1980, in the wake of the seizure of the American Embassy—and 52 hostages —in Tehran by Iranian revolutionaries. Swiss diplomats call the role the “brieftrager” or “the postman.”
In the years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Swiss shepherded messages to help avoid direct clashes. When President Obama assumed office, Switzerland hosted the talks that led to a nuclear deal. When Washington lifted sanctions, Swiss businesses had an early jump on rivals. When Trump reimposed sanctions, he gave the Swiss a phone number to pass the Iranians, saying: “I’d like to see them call me.”
So far, Tehran has continued to speak through the Swiss.
Switzerland is historically, a very Germanic and German-influenced place. It was the location of the National Socialist banking accounts and still is known for bank secrecy as well as for questionable financial activities, especially from Germany.
Likewise, one must remember that when one thinks of Germany, it is not just a political entity, but a tribal diaspora that exists throughout Europe, and one of the historical rallying calls for German militarism is to unite the Germanic communities that stretch throughout Eastern Europe and the Balkans all the way to Crimea, the Volga, and the Caucasus mountains. The nationalism cannot be separated from ethnic identitarianism, and is why many times major German political movements will start in nations near to Germany but not in Germany herself. For example, the National Socialists came out of Austria, and today one can see how the increase in Austrian right-wing political activity correlates directly with the rise in paganism, anti-immigration, and even openly eugenicist policies.
We know that Germany as a people- not just the nation, but those who associate with German identity -wants to do business in Iran and the US is obstructing that for her own interests.
We cannot say for sure what is happening. However, we can say that in the light of this situation, and how it was an airplane filled with Ukrainian people that were killed just like how it was Iraqi soldiers who died in the Iranian attack, that we may be seeing another struggle for US influence over Germany as opposed to Russian influence.
Does one not find it strange how Iran admitted so quickly that the shot-down plane happened by accident? Things such as this rarely happen, and political tension makes them more suspicious, especially since it was also tied to a nation in which major tensions for outright geopolitical struggles are taking place.
Trump is already being presented as a sort of “conflict resolution expert” because of this, but what about German business interests? This is to be seen, but it will be interesting to note that if, out of this conflict, some new sort of agreement between German and Iranian business interests come or not, and what the response from the US and Germany will be.
Comments are closed.