Most Israeli and Palestinian millennials believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will “never end,” according to a survey released late last week by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
Specifically, some 65% of Israeli millennials and some 52% of Palestinian millennials are pessimistic in terms of their views on the prospects for peace, according to the ICRC’s “Millennials on War” survey.
Moreover, they are the least optimistic of the people surveyed in countries affected by war. In other war-torn regions, an average of three in 10 millennials believe the war in their country/territory will never end, the survey showed. People in Ukraine and Syria are most optimistic: 69% and 60% believe the wars in their home countries are likely to end in the next five years.
The ICRC survey of more than 16,000 millennials between the ages of 20 and 35 in 16 countries was conducted between June 1 and October 7, 2019 by the market-research company Ipsos using a mixed-methods design. The countries included in the study were Afghanistan, Colombia, France, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Palestinian Authority-controlled territories, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland, Syria, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States. Quotas were set on age, gender, region and type of settlement in order to ensure that the sample effectively represented the millennial population structures in the respective countries/territories.
Commissioned by the ICRC, the survey explores their views on conflict, the future of warfare and the values underpinning international humanitarian law. It is a follow-up to the ICRC’s 2016 poll “People on War,” which highlighted worrying trends in decreasing respect for the laws of armed conflict.
“Millennials are the politicians, decision-makers, strategists, and opinion-makers of tomorrow,” said ICRC President Peter Maurer in his introduction. “What they think about war today could give insight into the direction of the world in the future.”
The new survey shows that terrorism and wars and armed conflict are considered by millennials to be among the top five most important issues affecting people around the world today from a list of 12 global challenges. Forty-seven percent of respondents said terrorism is a main concern and 45% said wars and conflict.
Respondents were asked to select all that apply.
For millennials living in countries/territories affected by conflict and who have personal experience of war view, the challenges of terrorism and war were ranked even higher, each at 50%.
In Israel, 65% of Israelis and 53% of Palestinians said they have had direct experience with war and armed conflict, ranging from participation in combat to being wounded, forced to leave their home, losing contact with a relative or other related scenarios.
In contrast, only one in four millennials (27%) said they had such experiences across all 16 countries/territories.
Almost every Syrian millennial interviewed has experienced conflict (96%).
Nearly three-quarters of millennials surveyed (74%) believe that most wars could be avoided. In Israel and the Palestinian territories, 69% of Israelis and 40% of Palestinians believe that wars and armed conflict could be avoided.
However, most millennials do not believe that war will be avoided.
“Millennials appear to see cataclysmic war as a real likelihood in their lifetime,” wrote Maurer.
Nearly half (47%) of millennials think a third world war is likely in their lifetime, and 42% of millennials from countries at peace are pessimistic that they are “somewhat” or even “very” likely to be affected by war or armed conflict in the future.
This includes most millennials who believe there will be a nuclear attack in the next decade.
Some 51% do not think they will be affected.
When it comes to the rules of war, the ICRC asked about the importance of the Geneva Conventions, a series of international agreements that impose limits on the ways in which wars and armed conflicts may be fought. These conventions were drawn up after World War II and all countries have now signed on to them.
When asked if there is still a need to impose limits on the way wars and armed conflicts may be fought, some 75% of respondents said yes. But many millennials, including in Israel, do not think the Geneva Conventions are effective. Fifty-three percent of Israelis feel the Geneva Conventions make no real difference.
The same percentage, 53%, of Syrians said they too think the conventions do not achieve their desired impact.
Moreover, the report shows a growing lack of respect for the basic human values enshrined in international law: 41% of millennials believe that torture is acceptable under some circumstances and more than one in 10 (15%) believe that combatants should do whatever it takes to win wars, regardless of the civilian casualties generated.
Millennials overwhelmingly oppose the use of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (81%) under any circumstances. However, in Israel (18%) and the United States (22%) some millennials believe the use of nuclear weapons is acceptable under some circumstances.
“These results indicate a significant level of fear that, in the future, there will be more,
not fewer, wars,” Maurer said. “They reveal a worrying acceptance of dehumanizing language or actions towards perceived or real ‘enemies’ that is prevailing in an era of fake news, disinformation and polarized viewpoints.
“It’s no surprise that millennials struggle with these difficult issues,” he continued. “Dehumanization in public discourse has, for example, led to those connected to the Islamic State group being depicted as people to be ‘annihilated’ or ‘exterminated,’ without either compassion or legal process. This discourse does not bring solutions. In fact, it victimizes individuals and entrenches societal divisions, which can fuel future violence.”
Maurer noted that things are not likely to get easier for millennials, yet the younger generation has an important role to play in determining how conflicts will be fought.
“It is vital that we all do what we can to reinforce their belief in the norms of humanity, in innovative ways that resonate with their values,” the president said. “This is particularly true in countries experiencing or at risk of violence and conflict, but also on a global level, in order to foster a supportive environment in which humanitarian values can prevail.”
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