Avigdor Liberman, the man who started it all. The mercurial leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party has frequently been assigned the responsibility, or more accurately, the blame for the ongoing political crisis since he could long ago have helped form a right-wing government. In the April elections, the right-wing parties received 65 seats, including Yisrael Beytenu’s five MKs, and it looked for all the world that a new right-wing government would swiftly be formed. But Liberman refused to join with the ultra-Orthodox again and concede to their demands on the many sensitive issues of religion and state, and the country went to unprecedented repeat elections. Whether this was a cynical ploy to rebrand his party and regain political relevance, or a principled stance against the stranglehold the ultra-Orthodox, and hardline religious-Zionist, parties have over critical aspects of the Jewish state, the fact is that it worked for Liberman. He embarked on a ferocious campaign attacking, and some say even inciting, against the ultra-Orthodox parties, and at times their public, but it gave Yisrael Beytenu a big boost in the second election in September where it jumped from five to eight seats, and very nearly got a ninth. This time around in the third election campaign, the charm, if that is the right word, has worn off somewhat, but it appears the party has done enough to prevent the kind of erosion of its voter base that would endanger its political power. Liberman and his party have engaged in the same invective against their religious and ultra-Orthodox boogeymen, making claims about the amount of money channeled to those communities instead of to the health and education systems, for example. And the party has kept banging the drum over how ultra-Orthodox men do not serve in the IDF, how only approximately half are in employment, and how the ultra-Orthodox parties stop secular Israelis from having public transport on their weekend, and prevent them from marrying in civil ceremonies if they so wish. Critically, however, Liberman has changed his political stance since the last campaign. He has openly called for Netanyahu to resign, and also stated that he would sit in a government with the left-wing Meretz party, something he ruled out ahead of the September election. It appears therefore that Liberman is more intent on ejecting Netanyahu from power than he has been, and although he remains the ultra-nationalist he always has been he no longer wants to prop up a Netanyahu government beholden to the ultra-Orthodox parties, and the radicals in the religious-Zionist Yamina party. Throughout most of the campaign since September, Yisrael Beytenu has polled consistently on seven or eight seats, demonstrating that although there is a lack of enthusiasm for the party beyond its eight-seat ceiling, its message against the ultra-Orthodox continues to resonate. Several polls have however put the party down to six seats, indicating that Liberman’s voter base may be getting tired with his various unfulfilled promises and his decision not to pick a side during coalition negotiations after the September election. Liberman rightly points out that Blue and White and Likud could have formed a unity government without Yisrael Beytenu after the September election, but that is not apparently stopping some of his voters thinking their vote may be better cast decisively in favor of one of the blocks in an attempt to end they interminable cycle of elections. Following the election, Yisrael Beytenu with its likely six or seven seats, will continue to refuse to join a narrow right-wing government comprising the ultra-Orthodox parties and Yamina. But Liberman has also vowed that he would not form a government that is dependent on the support of the Joint List of Arab parties either if they are in the coalition or simply refrain from toppling a minority government led by Gantz. The Yisrael Beytenu leader has realized that he cannot reverse himself on sitting with the ultra-Orthodox parties because it would likely spell the end of his political career, as would cooperating with the Arab parties against whom he has wielded similar invective, describing them as a “fifth column.” But at the same time he has also asserted that there will not be fourth elections. Liberman has promised “surprises” and undisclosed “alternate” solutions to Israel’s political crisis after the election, but what rabbits he can pull out of the hat come March 3 remains as nebulous as ever.
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