It will come as a shock to no one that politicians lie. The exceptions to that rule are few and far between. But not all lies are created equal. There is the outright lie – saying something false when you know the truth. There are lies of omission – intentionally leaving out unflattering details. And then there are broken promises. When people accuse a politician of lying, they are usually referring to politicians who make some kind of declaration of what they plan to accomplish, and then don’t do it. This could be a more forgivable kind of lie if the politician in question clearly made an effort to fulfill his or her commitments, but was unsuccessful. It could also be forgivable if the circumstances changed dramatically, such as, if a pandemic threatening the public’s health suddenly broke out. That brings us to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. Gantz’s only viable options these days are to break promises he made to his voters. And no matter what he chooses, he could alienate a large swath of them and tear apart his faction. The first promise is that he wouldn’t form a government that depends on the Joint List and the second is that he will not be in a government with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Blue and White is currently in negotiations to break both promises. Of course, Gantz can’t do both at the same time; he will have to pick one or the other. And it’s worth noting that the chances of success for a minority government with the Joint List’s support, should he and his party choose that path, are slim. As far as the survival of Blue and White is concerned, it’s hard to say that either is a great choice. If Gantz goes to a unity government, there is a fair chance that the MK Yair Lapid-led Yesh Atid party, making up about half of Blue and White, will stay out. Lapid has been the strongest opponent in the faction’s quadripartite leadership to making any kind of gesture towards Netanyahu, followed by MK Moshe Ya’alon. Gantz and MK Gabi Ashkenazi are more willing to consider a government with Netanyahu – especially at this juncture, with the coronavirus pandemic spreading and no clear end in site. If Gantz goes to a minority government, there are at least two MKs who will oppose it – Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser – but there are others who have come out against it within the party, rather than publicly, like Ashkenazi and MK Chili Tropper, who is close with Gantz. The reasoning ranges from values and policies – Joint List MKs have spoken in support of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other arch-terrorists, and said they will not support any government that responds to rocket fire from Gaza – to strategic – the argument that a minority government will not last long enough to do anything significant and is not worth pursuing. Electorally, a significant portion of Blue and White voters do not want a minority government. A Israel Hayom poll this month shows that 47% of Blue and White voters support a minority government while 39% oppose it. Direct Polls found this month that a quarter of Blue and White voters oppose a government supported by the Joint List and would prefer another election. The Israel Hayom poll said 31% of Blue and White voters prefer a broad unity government, as opposed to 17% who wanted a minority government with Joint List support. At the same time, polling by Shmuel Rosner in Maariv this month shows that about 75% of Blue and White voters agree with the statement “my desire to have Netanyahu end his tenure as prime minister was the main consideration in my voting” and 55% agree with the statement “I have no problem with the establishment of a coalition in support of the Arabs,” meaning the Joint List. In other words, ousting Netanyahu is a big priority for Blue and White voters – and most of them would be willing to sit with the Joint List to do it. Sitting in a government with Netanyahu would be breaking a huge promise by Gantz. Likud repeatedly accused Blue and White of being the “anyone but Bibi party” over the past year, the implication being they stand for nothing but voting Netanyahu out of office. Blue and White pushed back against that assertion, but replacing Netanyahu is obviously their primary goal and the reason left-wing voters abandoned Labor and Meretz and then Labor-Meretz to vote for them. Meanwhile, we are in the middle of a massive, international crisis. Netanyahu is, by all accounts, doing a good job handling it. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz even said over the weekend that Netanyahu was the one who warned Europe that it needs to take the situation more seriously. Of course, there is room for improvement and criticism, which is why it is important for the Knesset to oversee the government’s efforts and for Israel’s vibrant media to stay alert. But overall, it seems like even the Blue and White leadership “cockpit” does not have much to say that’s negative about the Netanyahu-led response to COVID-19, except for when they think he is politicizing it. But Netanyahu’s hands are tied by the lack of a government. Ministries cannot break past their current budgetary constraints, which means that some of the economic aid people need is sorely lacking, and the funding issues could further impact the health services we need. It is not an exaggeration to say Israel’s constitutional crisis has become a governing emergency. This wouldn’t be a unity government like the one negotiated in September. This would be a government united around a goal, to pull through the coronavirus crisis together. No matter what political path Gantz chooses, he will have broken a promise to his voters. But in the case of not sitting with Netanyahu, the circumstances have changed in a way no one could have expected. There are different kinds of lies and different kinds of broken promises. Voters would likely forgive Gantz for going back on his word if it’s in the service of ending this public health crisis as quickly and safely as possible.
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