One of the statemetns I have made consistently is that Trump does not really have to win most people. In fact, there is a very strong chance that Trump will lose by potentialy double the popular vote from last time. However, this does not matter to the Electoral College. All Trump needs is the College, and he needs it in about six of eight states- Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -to ensure victory. All of the other states basically have made their choices as to who is most likely going to win, and while changes could happen, the voter battle in these states will most likely decide the election.
That said, the trend to watch for is going to be the turnout for election as well as very importantly, for voter registration in these states. Whoever is able to most successfully register for his side and dissuade the other side from voting will win, and so far, Trump is significantly winning the voter registration battle in these states.
In the last few weeks, Joe Biden has led President Donald Trump by a fairly consistent 8-point average in national polls and has maintained leads in more than enough battleground states to win the Electoral College, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump won in 2016.
But there are signs Trump’s ground operation is paying off when it comes to registering new voters in key states, an advantage that could become important if the race tightens before Nov. 3.
The Trump campaign has boasted that it knocks on more than a million doors a week, a claim that’s impossible to independently verify. In sharp contrast, the Biden campaign had ditched a ground game for virtual outreach, citing Covid-19 concerns — even though academic research has routinely concluded door-to-door canvassing is the “most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization.” Only just now has the Biden campaign decided to restart its in-person voter contacts in some battleground states.
As deadlines approach, new data from the past few months shows Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016, even if new registrations have lagged 2016 rates across the board. It’s a sign that in a pandemic, Democrats are struggling to seize traditional opportunities to pad their margins, such as the return of students to college campuses.
Of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — permit voters to register by party. In all four states, voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP than four years ago.
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Today, Trump’s voter registration edge alone wouldn’t be nearly sufficient to offset the leads Biden is posting in polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and probably Arizona. But if the race tightens or there’s a substantial polling error, Trump’s superior base growth could make a difference in a few tight states — and call into question why the Biden campaign chose to forgo hitting the streets. (source)
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