On the political map, Likud continues to lose seats while Yamina rises

A survey on party mandates, should the country go to elections once more, was conducted Thursday by Maariv, the sister publication of The Jerusalem Post, and Menachem Lazar from Panels Politics, showing the continuing weakening trend of the Likud Party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the significant strengthening of Yamina, led by MK Naftali Bennett.

The high coronavirus infection rates, the High Holy Days lockdown, the frequently changing decisions, the quarrels at the top and the overall feeling that the coronavirus crisis is being mismanaged are all what is causing the spectrum of the mandate map to change.

According to the poll, if the election had taken place today, the Likud Party would only have 27 seats compared to the 36 seats it currently holds today. At the height of its power in May, the Likud stood in the polls at 41 seats, meaning that the poll shows a loss of 14 seats in less than six months. In a poll frolast month conducted by Mencham Lazar, the Likud had 30 seats. 

The main beneficiary of the Likud’s loss of seats is chairman of the Yamina, MK Naftali Bennett, who currently holds 22 seats in the current poll compared to 20 in the last poll. Yamina rose in the polls by 22 seats in the last five months. 

Yesh Atid-Telem, headed by opposition leader Yair Lapid, continues to reign as the third-biggest party with 16 mandates.

The other seats in the poll are divided as follows: The Joint List with 15 seats, Blue and White, led by Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz, with ten seats, Shas with nine, Yisrael Beytenu with nine, UTJ with seven and Meretz with five. Below the vote threshold required to obtain a seat are Otzma Yehudit with 1.5% of the votes, the Labor Party at 1%, Bayit Yehudi at 0.5%, Derech Eretz 0.5% and Gesher 0.0%.

The poll also examined the possibility of the emergence a new party led by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot and Tel Aviv-Yafo Mayor Ron Huldai. Such a list would win eight mandates, brought in by a loss of two from Blue and White, Yesh Atid-Telem losing two, Yisrael Beytenu one and Yamina one. 

A picture of the seats in the Eizenkot-Huldai scenario would look as follows: Likud 28, Yamina 20, Joint List 14, Yesh Atid-Telem 13, Shas nine, Eizenkot-Huldai list eight, Blue and White eight, Yisrael Beytenu eight, UTJ seven and Meretz five. 

The survey was conducted among 515 members of the respondents panel Panel4All, which conducts online research. The request to participate in the panel was sent to 3,098 members. The survey was conducted among a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs alike. The survey was conducted on October 8, 2020. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 4.4%.