It’s easy to spend a lot of time on 270ToWin.com, flipping states from red to blue and back and contemplating scenarios for the presidential election – including ones where the Electoral College margin is extremely narrow, or perhaps no margin at all.
Start with the sense that the election will come down to Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Minnesota isn’t looking that competitive anymore, and Trump doesn’t really need it. Nevada might now be a more likely candidate to flip from blue to red, but outside of Rasmussen, Biden’s lead out there doesn’t look easily surmountable. New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia do not look all that competitive.
Democrats are talking themselves into believing Biden has a chance in Texas, but Trump keeps having a lead there. It’s not a particularly big lead by historical standards for a Republican, but Trump’s lead is consistent.
It’s a similar story in Georgia; the RealClearPolitics average is an even split, as of this writing. Democrats can feel good making the Trump campaign expend resources and effort to keep Georgia in the red column, but they probably wouldn’t want to bet the mortgage on Biden winning the Peach State.
And then there’s Maine’s second congressional district, which Trump won in 2016.
In the most recent Bangor Daily News poll, Trump leads Biden within this congressional district, 49 percent to Biden’s 41 percent, while losing the state overall, 51 percent to 40 percent.
But wait! Nebraska also awards its electoral college votes by congressional district, and last month, the Siena poll found Biden ahead in Nebraska’s second congressional district, 48 percent to 41 percent. So assume Trump gets one of Maine’s electoral votes, and Biden gets one of Nebraska’s.
Read the rest from Jim Geraghty HERE.
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