In the US, the Hispanic bloc commonly votes about 70/30 in favor of Democrats. However, Mediaite reports that the 2020 election data coming out suggests Hispanic support for Democrats has seriously eroded.
Congressional Democrats failed to perform well in the 2020 election partly because they experienced a “catastrophic erosion” in support from Hispanic voters, according to the Cook Political Report.
Cook’s Dave Wasserman noted that Republicans appear to have won 18 of 27 House races in Cook’s “toss-up” category, with another six “up in the air.” Two Hispanic Republican candidates in Miami knocked out incumbent Democrats, including one Cook had characterized as a “likely Democratic” win, Rep. Donna Shalala, who lost to Maria Elvira Salazar. The other candidate, Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, defeated Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
“Democrats suffered a catastrophic erosion in Hispanic support,” Wasserman wrote. “The races where Republicans most vastly outperformed everyone’s priors were heavily Hispanic districts that swung enormously to Trump. These include both GOP pickups in Miami (Carlos Gimenez in FL-26 and Maria Elvira Salazar in FL-27) as well as Republican Tony Gonzales’s hold of Rep. Will Hurd’s open TX-23. Amazingly, Republicans didn’t lose a single seat in Texas.”
The assessment tracks with New York Times estimates finding President Donald Trump’s share of the vote increased among every group in three swing states compared to 2016, with the exception of white voters and those aged 65+. The data — taken from votes counted in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina as of Thursday morning — showed Trump’s support from majority Hispanic neighborhoods had grown by 11.5 percent, and by 13 percent in Cuban neighborhoods. His support similarly grew in Black neighborhoods by 2 percent. (source)
If this trend continues, and the Hispanic bloc is no longer a “reliable Democrat” bloc, and even the Black bloc becomes ‘less reliable’, it will force, out of necessity for survival, the Democrats to reconsider many positions and adapt to them as well as make the Republicans more competitive, and the possible best way in the short term to speed this process is to see a Biden victory, for Biden’s history of questionable statements and actions is indefensible and inherently leaves a bad taste in the mouths of these blocs.
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