Coronavirus closure is ‘nuclear bomb’ – German researcher

Partial lockdowns could lead to an explosion in coronavirus cases, according to a top German researcher. 

That is because the more people are in fewer places in less time, the more likely they are to pass on the virus, said Prof. Andrei Sommer, a visiting professor at Isra University in Jordan and former member of the University of Ulm, in an interview with The Jerusalem Post. 

He compared the results of partial lockdowns to a nuclear explosion.

The immense destructive power of atomic weapons is the result of a sudden release of energy produced by splitting the nuclei of the fissile elements making up the bombs’ core, according to the Atomic Heritage Foundation in an article about the science behind the atomic bomb. In order to detonate an atomic weapon, you need a critical mass of fissionable material. The more you have, the greater the odds that an explosion will occur.

“The critical mass is the number of people in a store at a certain time, which in a particle lockdown is compressed,” Sommer explained. “The neutrons are the people among them who are infected.

“The higher the number of people surrounding the infected person, the more the virus will spread,” he continued, “and each who is newly infected, infects other people – and this is the chain reaction in the nuclear bomb.”Prof. Andrei Sommer (Credit: Courtesy)

According to Sommer, the root cause of the dramatic increase in coronavirus infections in Germany and Israel in recent weeks is a result of the partial lockdown. 

“By closing all shops except for three – supermarkets, gas stations and pharmacies – you are putting more people into smaller spaces per day,” Sommer said of the situation in his hometown.

Recall, Germany is under a partial lockdown until January 10th, with most shops closed along with schools, restaurants, cultural and leisure facilities – similar to in Israel.

Sommer said that when he drives through Ulm, he sees many cars in front of the supermarket early in the morning – many more than he would have seen before the closure. 

“Usually, people are distributed among a number of shops,” he said. “Now, they are restricted to only a few, where the supermarket plays the most important role.”

According to Sommer, if 75 people instead of 25 people are in the market at 8 a.m., then the chance of being infected simply by being close to an infected person increases dramatically. Likewise, if 200,000 people are distributed among 20 shops, then the number of people per shop is smaller compared to when 200,000 people are distributed among three. 

The second factor is a time factor. 

In Germany, authorities have required people to stay in their homes from 8 p.m. or 9 p.m., depending on the area. Israel has considered night curfews, but they have been removed from the table both because health officials have warned of their ineffectiveness and because the attorney-general has questioned whether they would be legally viable.

With a night curfew “this means the time to finish shopping is now two or more hours shorter than before the lockdown, which aggravates the space factor,” Sommer added. The number of coronavirus cases has continued to climb since the onset of the third lockdown on December 27. However, health officials have said the rising infection is still a result of the Hanukkah holiday, which culminated on December 18 and was marked by many large gatherings. It takes around 10 days to see the result of these gatherings due to the coronavirus incubation period of an average of five to six days and up to 14.

Sommer is not the first to advocate against the benefits of lockdowns. 

Last week, at a meeting of the Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, the Health Ministry argued that the state of emergency needed to be extended for another two months. The committee ultimately agreed and the state of emergency was extended through March 3, but not before a heated debate that included a presentation by the Public Emergency Council for the Coronavirus Crisis presented by Professor Zvi Bentwich, the director of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev’s Center for Emerging Diseases, Tropical Diseases and AIDS. 

In his presentation, he argued that the Health Ministry’s policy of locking down is based on “erroneous data.” He said that the country is not in a state of emergency and that the council “strongly opposes any attempt to use medical pretexts for violating individual rights and democracy… The declaration of a state of emergency does not contribute anything to the continued struggle with the virus.”

The group’s position paper added that “many studies have found that measures to prevent the spread of the virus cause more serious harm than the virus itself.”

The state of emergency allows the government to make decisions about freedom of movement and other lockdown policies to help keep the virus in check.  

Similarly, the Commonsense Model designed by a group of Israeli scientists and physicians calls for the government to abstain from nation-wide coronavirus restrictions and rather focus protection on the at-risk population. 

The Commonsense Model was conceived by three Tel Aviv University professors: Udi Kimron, Ariel Munitz and Motti Gerlic. Around 150 other scientists and doctors back the model. 

It should be noted, however, that both the first and second nation-wide lockdowns drastically reduced infection in the country in a few short weeks, likely saving many lives. The Health Ministry has argued that the current and third lockdown is less effective because it is too flexible and much of the public is not adhering to the rules.