COVID crisis: Amid scenes of mass Purim gathering, ‘R’ approaches 1

A day after scenes of mass illegal gatherings filled the Internet, the Health Ministry reported that the reproduction rate has reached 0.99, meaning that each infected person is infecting just under one more. Now, ministry officials are saying that there is a chance the next stage of reliefs will have to be reduced or delayed.The country is meant to re-open cafes, restaurants, event gardens and more amenities at hotels beginning on March 7, as well as classrooms for students in grades 7-10. However, if the reproduction rate continues to climb and infection spreads, it is possible that the government will need to delay these openings.“If the reproduction rate remains as it is today, it is possible – borderline but possible” to open up,” coronavirus commissioner Prof. Nachman Ash told Ynet. “If it goes beyond this, then we will have to think about it carefully.”He said that the government’s priority would be education and that allowing students in grades 7-10 to return to their classrooms would likely occur either way. And as for Passover?“Right now, I have a very hard time predicting Passover,” Ash told Ynet. “It seems far-fetched” that it would be without restrictions.The reproduction rate of 0.99 is the highest it has been in recent weeks, up from 0.97 the day before and under 0.8 only a week prior. The reproduction rate or “R” indicates how infectious the disease is – the higher the number the more people each sick person infects.

In Arab society the R is even higher at 1.12, meaning that every eight infected people will infect about nine others.Health officials believe that the British variant, which accounts for around 80% to 90% of all cases in the country, is the culprit behind the increased spread. Of course, this current R is reflective only of the openings of classrooms and commerce that Israel took in the last two weeks and does not yet include the illegal Purim gatherings, which could lead to even greater recorded infection in the next 10 days.Ash told Ynet that “if there is a miracle and there were only vaccinated people [at the Purim parties], there will be no adhesions. But the likelihood is that this is not the case.”The government is expected to meet this week to discuss the next phase. As has been the case in the past, it is likely that the Health Ministry will be backed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Blue and White will want to push forward with a green passport program and continue opening up the economy.According to the most recent data, 1,429 people were diagnosed with the virus on Saturday, with 6% of those screened testing positive. Some 776 patients were in serious condition, including more than 200 who were intubated.
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