Aiming at Dimona: Did the Syrian regime purposely target Israel?

A sleepless night on Thursday morning left many in Israel wondering what sirens at two in the morning, sounds of explosions and stories of air strikes in Syria reveal about a shadowy conflict in the region. Israel used a Patriot air defense system to try to stop a Syrian surface-to-air missile that was fired from Syria and which set off sirens near Dimona. Dimona is the site of a sensitive nuclear facility.  Israel has said the Syrian missile was not directed toward a specific target. However, that leaves questions about the explosions people reported from across Israel, from the south to areas near Modi’in and Jerusalem. According to reports the interceptor, which was apparently a Patriot system, failed to intercept the missile. This is not a good result when Israel has said in the last year that it has increased the capabilities of its integrated multi-layered air defense systems. Israel has Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow, three systems designed to stop threats from missiles to drones. It also has the US Patriot system. Israel and the US jointly developed Arrow and David’s Sling and Israel built Iron Dome, two of whose batteries have been provided to the US Army in the last year.  Why was a Patriot chosen to take down the S-200 missile that was flying from Syria? Patriots have been used by Israel in the past against drones flying from Syria in 2017 and 2018. Also Israel has had Patriot batteries in southern Israel for many years near Eilat to defend against threats. Patriot missiles have been used widely by Saudi Arabia against threats by the Houthis in Yemen, including against ballistic missiles. However, Israel’s drills last year were intended to use Iron Dome and David’s Sling against the same targets, to show they can operate well together. David’s Sling has similar ranges as the Patriot and its interceptor is designed to fit into a Patriot battery.  Be that as it may, there are many unresolved questions about the April 22 incident. Why did Syria fire a missile in the direction of Dimona. If it is true that the missile did not purposely target this sensitive area, then why was it heading towards southern Israel in the first place. Trying to see how a Syrian missile could even end up in southern Israel using a map indicates that the flight path would likely take it over a part of Jordan and the West Bank. Yet explosions were heard over Rehovot and Modi’in on the morning of April 22 during the incident that unfolded. Around 1:40am Israel said that “sirens sounded in Abu Qrenat.” This is an area near Dimona. At 2:55am Israel said that “a short while ago, surface-to-air missile fire was identified from Syria, which landed in the Negev area. In response, a few minutes ago, the IDF struck the battery from which the missile was launched and additional Syrian surface-to-air batteries in the area.”  This leaves questions about what happened that triggered the Syrians to fire an air defense missile. In March 2017 the Syrians also fired an S-200 that went over Jordan and had to be intercepted by Israel’s Arrow missile. It was carrying a large warhead of several hundred kilograms. Israel judged it a serious threat. The Arrow is designed to stop large ballistic missiles and threats that may occur beyond the atmosphere like long range ballistic missiles. Iran, for instance, makes missiles with ranges of several thousand kilometers. Iran also has supplied other missiles to proxy groups in the region. In August 2018 Iran sent long range missiles to pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. Reuters noted that “the Zelzal, Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar missiles in question have ranges of about 200 km to 700 km, putting Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh or the Israeli city of Tel Aviv within striking distance if the weapons were deployed in southern or western Iraq.” There were no reports in Syria of air defense being activated before the reports of the sirens in southern Israel. There were no reports of airstrikes. Missile debris from the alleged S-200 Syria used was found in Israel. People in Abu Qrenat apparently heard a large explosion. Was that from the impact of the Syrian missile or an interception? It is not clear. The S-200 debris was reportedly found some 30km from the Dimona facility. Aurora Intel, an online Twitter account that uses open source intelligence to track incidents, has focused on the Dumayr S-200 battery site as the alleged source of the Syrian fire. Aurora concluded that the Syrians may have preemptively fired a missile suspecting an upcoming Israel airstrike. Aurora also writes that the debris from the S-200 was found in a pool in Ashalim in southern Israel.

If it’s true that Syrian air defense didn’t mean to fire a missile towards Dimona and they were firing wildly as they have in the past, such as in March 2017, it still leaves questions about how such a large warhead was able to penetrate deeply into Israel. Israel has some of the most well defended airspace in the world. The S-200 is not a sophisticated weapon. If it can cause such an emergency by being lobbed in the wrong direction, that leaves questions about more sophisticated weapons purposely targeting Israel. In September 2019 Iran used drones and cruise missiles to strike at Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility. Iran has supplied the Houthis in Yemen with drones and ballistic missiles. It has sent precision guided munitions to Hezbollah. It has trafficked ballistic missiles to Iraq and sent rockets and weapons to Syria, as well as drones.  Much remains unclear about the incident on April 22, including why Syria fired a missile so wildly and so far south into Israel and whether Israel’s interceptors failed to stop the threat. 
Source