Don’t let the Jerusalem tinderbox become an inferno – analysis

Though the past week has seen hundreds of Palestinians and Israeli police officers and civilians injured, the defense establishment still believes that the situation can return to normal. 

Normal as normal can be in this region.

Over 300 Palestinians and several Israelis were hurt in clashes with police on Monday alone, in violence that some say the city has not seen in years. 

Israel has been condemned for how it is dealing with the crisis in Jerusalem, but, the situation could have been much worse.

But were there to be fatalities at the holy site, especially if is a child or a youth, the entire country could explode.

Palestinian gunmen have already tried to carry out attacks, such as at the Salem border police base on Friday, but none have been successful. 

And while Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have threatened Israel, less than 10 rockets have been fired over the past week from the blockaded coastal enclave.

Hamas has, instead, resorted to launching hundreds of incendiary balloons that have wreaked havoc on fields and nature reserves. It’s a strategy that shows that the terror group supports Palestinians in Jerusalem but does not want to risk serious Israeli retaliation.

Though the IDF has increased its troop deployment to the West Bank, it had been expecting more violence on Saturday and believes that even with the threats by Hamas and PIJ, the Islamists are more deterred than previously thought.

Israel and terror groups in the Gaza Strip have clashed several times over the last three years, but due in part to the coronavirus pandemic, the last year has seen far less violence. 

But, with the country seemingly over the worst of the pandemic, things are getting back to the way they once were. And the political deadlock that Israel is facing, compounded by the cancellation of Palestinian elections, has not eased the situation.

Two and a half weeks ago, when some 36 rockets were fired towards Israel, IDF chief Aviv Kohavi ordered to prepare for an extensive aerial operation. The planes were armed and the pilots were ready but they were ordered to stand down. 

On Monday, the IDF was supposed to have kicked off the largest drill in its 73-year history. Thousands will take part in the exercise, dubbed “Chariots of Fire,” that will see all commands, as well as the political echelon, simulate a multi-front war against Israel’s enemies.But following the increased tensions in the south, it has been postponed.

Kohavi decided that the drill would go ahead despite the growing security crisis in Jerusalem and subsequent tensions on the northern and southern borders. However, due to the violence, one battalion expected to take part was diverted to the West Bank and will not participate.

One senior officer said that instead of starting a “war month,” the IDF could have been at war. But, he stressed, Hamas prefers to have calm and stability over fighting at present.

Yayha Sinwar, the current Hamas leader in Gaza, knows that it is not worth firing barrages of rockets into Israel right now. 

But, should someone die, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will not remain idle. 

Rockets will pound Israel and a Hamas cell in the West Bank could attack the IDF or Israeli civilians.

Jerusalem is a tinderbox, on slow burn. It does not need to become an inferno.