Lapid, Gantz rising in first election polls after Gaza conflict

Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid and his former political partner, Blue and White chairman and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, have seen a rise in popularity in the first election polls to come out since the previous election, both of which were published on Sunday evening.

A poll published on Sunday evening by N12 found that if the elections were held today, Lapid would receive 21 mandates, four more than he received in the latest election. A poll published on the same night by Channel 13 found him doing even better, receiving 22 mandates.

The N12 poll also saw Gantz’ Blue and White party rising to 10 seats, 2 more than in the previous election, with the Channel 13 poll finding him rising to 11 seats.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party doesn’t seem to have received a boost since the election, with the N12 poll showing the Likud remaining at 30 seats and Channel 13 showing them losing a seat with 29. 

While the N12 poll found both of the ultra-Orthodox parties retaining the same number of seats as in the last election, the Channel 13 poll found Shas losing two mandates to receive 7 seats, with United Torah Judaism dropping by one seat to receive 6.

Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionist Party saw a slight increase in popularity in both polls, receiving 7 seats in the N12 poll and 8 in the Channel 13 poll.

Merav Michaeli’s Labor Party retained its 7 seats in the Channel 13 poll but lost a seat in the N12 poll, while Meretz dropped by two mandates in both polls to 4 seats.

Gideon Sa’ar’s New hope Party retained its 6 seats in the N12 poll, but lost one in the Channel 13 poll.

Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beyteinu lost a seat in the N12 poll, earning 6 seats, and lost 2 seats in the Channel 13 poll.

Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party saw mixed results from the poll, dropping by 2 seats in the N12 poll to receive five, but gaining one seat in the channel 13 poll with 8.

Ayman Odeh’s Joint List grew to 8 seats in the Channel 13 poll but remained at 6 seats in the N12 poll, while Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am Party received 4 mandates in the N12 poll and failed to clear the threshold in the Channel 13 poll.

Both polls found that Netanyahu would have a harder time forming a government if elections were held today.

The Channel 13 poll found the pro-Netayahu bloc receiving 50 mandates, with the anti-Netanyahu parties receiving 62 seats, with Yamina’s 8 seats up for grabs.

N12 found the pro-Netayahu bloc receiving 53 mandates, the anti-Netanyahu parties receiving 58 seats, while Yamina’s 5 seats and Ra’am’s 4 seats up for grabs,

When asked who they would vote for if Israel were to move to a system of direct votes for Prime Minister, N12 found Netanyahu receiving 40% of the votes, Lapid close behind with 35%, and the other 25% said they either don’t know, or don’t plan on voting. Channel 13 found Netanyahu receiving 41% of votes, with Lapid even closer behind with 37%, and 16% saying they don’t know.

N12 also found that 47% of participants were opposed to the ceasefire deal with Hamas, while 35% of participants said they support it. Some 58% of voters who describe themselves as right wing opposed the deal, with 28% supporting it, while 49% of self-described center-left wing voters said they supported the ceasefire, and 30% opposed it.

Channel 13 found that 48% of participants were opposed to the ceasefire deal with Hamas, while 40% of participants said they support it, and 12% saying they don’t know.

When asked “who won” Operation Guardian of the Walls, most Israelis in both polls said “neither side,” an answer given by 50% of N12 respondents and 54% of Channel 13 respondents.

Channel 13 also found that 45% of Israelis would prefer another round of elections, while 42% would prefer a unity government, and 13% don’t have an opinion on the subject.

The Channel 13 poll was published by Prof. Camil Fuchs and included 702 respondents, 601 of which are Jewish and 101 of which are not, with a margin of error of 3.8%.