Iran’s media gave major headlines to claims of attacks on US forces in Syria on July 4. The date was symbolic. It was Independence Day in the US. What better day for Iran to claim it had struck at a US base in Syria. However, it turns out the rumors of the rocket attacks were likely false, and the US-led Coalition denied any incident happened in Syria.
That doesn’t matter for Iran’s media, and the media stations that have links to Iran’s IRGC. The reports claimed there were attacks and “explosions” at a US base. However sources there denied the reports. What Iran may be messaging on this issue is more complex than just rumored attacks. Iran may be pinpointing where the next front will begin in its conflict with the US. Since 2019 Iran has upped attacks on the US in Iraq. It has used militias such as Kataib Hezbollah to carry out numerous attacks. It also downed a US drone in June 2019 and mined ships in the Gulf of Oman in May and June. At the time US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned about the Iranian threats. The threats increased rapidly through the fall of 2019.
At the same time in 2019 there were concerns expressed by US officials in the fall of 2019 that Israeli-Iran tensions could affect the US. A report from the US Lead Inspector-General on the anti-ISIS coalition Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) in November 2019 spotlighted “tensions with Iran and suspected Israeli airstrikes,” as a complication for the OIR mission against ISIS in Iraq. In addition, the report noted that US Central Command was concerned that “Iranian backed forces in Syria might look to target US military personnel or its partner forces in Syria if they view the US as complicit in Israeli strikes on its [Iran’s] forces.”
The report noted a July 2019 incident in which there was the “first of several suspected Israeli drone strikes in Iraq” and that it targeted a Popular Mobilization “munitions depot near Baghdad.” What did this mean? “Tensions with Iran and suspected Israeli airstrikes complicate OIR this quarter,” the report said at the. time. “According to media reports, suspected Israeli airstrikes on Iraqi bases belonging to Iranian-aligned militias this quarter exacerbated ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and complicated the OIR mission.”
Central Command also noted increased threat against US forces from Iranian-aligned groups in Iraq, writing that “Iranian-backed militias may view the US as complicit in the Israeli strikes, which targeted Iraqi militia bases allegedly housing Iranian weapons.”
That was in the fall of 2019. But much changed soon after as the pro-Iran militias in Iraq killed a US contractor in a rocket attack in December. The US responded with airstrikes, Iranian groups attack the US embassy and the US killed IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January 2020. Then the pro-Iran militias increased the use of rockets to attack US forces. The US consolidated facilities in Iraq. By January 2021 the pro-Iran militias shifted course. They began to target Erbil in the Kurdistan region, using drones and rockets to strike at US forces. US President Joe Biden responded with airstrikes, the most recent of which hit pro-Iran units in Syria in late June. The pro-Iran groups responded by shelling US forces in Syria.
This is the scenario the US has been concerned about for years. The pro-Iran attacks may spill over to Syria. It is widely known Iran has boots on the ground in Syria and has entrenched. It tried to use Hezbollah to launch a drone at Israel in the fall of 2019. It launched a drone at Israel from T-4 in February 2018 and again in May 2021. It also tried to bring its 3rd Khordad air defense system to Syria in April 2018. The same system was used by Iran to down the US Global Hawk drone in June 2019 off Iran’s coast.
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What is known today is that Iran appears to be messaging about new attacks on the US in Syria. This could include attacks on US forces at Al-Omar oil field or Conoco, areas the US is known to be stationed. The US is in Syria to defeat ISIS and support the Syrian Democratic Forces. Satellite images published online by Aurora Intel from Planet Labs show that an area of the US facility at Omar field, called “Green village” was allegedly damaged in the June 28 shelling. A warehouse was damaged. Iran’s militias tend to have good intel on US facilities. In April they used a drone to target a secret CIA hangar in Erbil. The June 27 drone attack on Erbil targeted an area near the new US consulate.
There is more to the Iranian threat than just using militias to harass US forces in Syria. Iran’s media reports about the targeting of an “Israeli owned” ship making its way to India from the Gulf is also likely messaging about more targeting of commercial ships linked to Israel. Iran began targeting ships in May 2019 but increased those attacks to target commercial ships linked to Israel in February 2021. Israeli officials accused Iran of at least one of these incidents. Defense Minister Benny Gantz had tough words for Iran on Sunday, saying that Israel would not accept Iran’s activities and entrenchment in the region. He said Iran knows that Israel is ready to act. According to journalist Barak Ravid, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett convened a meeting on Sunday to discuss US-Iran talks and the possibility the US might return to the so-called Iran deal.
These points of concern expressed by Israel, along with the messaging from Iran about targeting a ship and targeting the US in Syria, appear to sketch out the possibilities for a new round of tension. This tension and incidents may include thousands of kilometers of possible strikes by pro-Iran groups. This is how Iran operationalizes these groups from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Iran doesn’t fight wars, it gets others to do that. Now it wants to provoke more tensions with the US in Syria, and possibly with Israel as well.
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