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*** Election Night Livewire *** Battle of the ‘Erics’ in Missouri, Arizona Tests MAGA, Impeachment Backers Face Fate

By admin

Voters in Missouri, Arizona, Michigan, Washington State, Kansas, and Ohio head to the polls on Tuesday to again test the resolve of former President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, with several key races from coast to coast setting the tone for the future of the Republican Party.

In Missouri, former Gov. Eric Greitens faces off against Attorney General Eric Schmitt in the GOP senatorial primary also featuring Reps. Billy Long (R-MO) and Vicky Hartzler (R-MO). Greitens, who has portrayed himself as the real MAGA candidate, was the first candidate nationwide to pledge to oppose Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell no matter what if elected. His anti-establishment aggression has drawn fierce opposition from the likes of McConnell and other establishment foes like former George W. Bush aide Karl Rove, but Schmitt has tried to position himself similarly–despite backing from major mega-donors connected to McConnell–as a Trump-aligned conservative. The fight for Trump’s support culminated on Monday with an endorsement by Trump for simply “ERIC”–with the former president not specifying one or the other–and both of them claiming his endorsement meant them. Whichever one wins will say a lot about the future of the party, and could set the tone for the beginning of the end of McConnell either way as even Schmitt came out against McConnell at the very end of the race following Greitens’ lead.

Out in Arizona, Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has shocked the GOP establishment with a brash campaign while the establishment has rushed in to push Karrin Taylor Robson. The race has pitted Trump against his former wingman former Vice President Mike Pence, who campaigned for Robson on the same day Trump held a rally with Lake. Lake seems to have broken out in the polls in the home stretch, suggesting Trump’s backing and her aggressive anti-establishment style might win the day–and a loss for Robson would be a serious setback for the establishment wing of the GOP. In the Senate primary, likewise, a similar type of fight is playing out with Trump-backed Blake Masters taking a huge lead over his primary opponents as Republicans look to November to try to oust Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in this critical race.

Michiganders, meanwhile, will select who will face off against Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, with Tudor Dixon the favorite to close the deal in the primary on Tuesday night after she surged in polls thanks to a late endorsement from Trump in the final days of the campaign. Dixon will have to work to unite the party after a bruising primary and challenge the increasingly competitive Whitmer in November, and has a tough road ahead of her, but many allies of Dixon’s think she can pull it off. Michigan voters will also judge the fate of Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI), one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in early 2021.

Up in Washington State, two impeachment Republicans–Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)–also face judgement day. If any of these three go down on Tuesday night, that bodes even more badly for Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), whose Wyoming primary looms just a couple weeks from now on August 16.

Ohio voters meanwhile have statehouse elections, and there may be some interesting developments there. Kansas, too, is going to select a GOP nominee for governor to take on Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS)–a Democrat and top target of Republicans this year.

The polls close in Ohio at 7:30 p.m. ET, in Michigan, Missouri, and Kansas at 8:00 p.m. ET,  in Arizona at 10:00 p.m. ET, and in Washington State at 11:00 p.m. ET.

Follow along here for live updates as the results pour in from across the country.

UPDATE 3:50 a.m. ET:

Kari Lake has now taken the lead by more than a thousand votes as the Election Day votes are all in now in Maricopa County:

Same-day drop-off votes, of which officials estimate about 125,000–and many expect will break heavy for Lake–will be county later. Lake is now the easy odds-on favorite to win this, though it won’t be called officially tonight.

UPDATE 3:25 a.m. ET:

It seems like there are per local officials approximately 125,000 day-of dropped-off ballots in Maricopa County, which will not be counted until later–though these ballots are likely to actually, per sources familiar with the matter, favor Lake. When the Election Day vote is finalized, though, many suspect that the results will be about dead even between Lake and Robson–and that Lake will likely surpass Robson as these ballots are counted later. We will not know for sure though until Wednesday or later at the earliest, but Lake is in a very strong position after Robson gave her a scare to open the night.

UPDATE 3:21 a.m. ET:

Robson’s lead just took another huge blow as Navajo County reported more votes, and now she is down to just over 16,000 over Lake–Lake is quickly gaining on her faster than she can hold on:

UPDATE 3:14 a.m. ET:

Now the margin is down to just over 19,000 as more votes came in from elsewhere in the state, and Maricopa County still has huge numbers to report. This is looking grimmer and grimmer for Robson and brighter and brighter for Lake:

UPDATE 3:10 a.m. ET:

The picture is looking better and better for Kari Lake–and worse for Karrin Taylor Robson–as the night drags on. A big batch of votes in Pinal County, Arizona, just dropped cutting the margin to just over 20,000 votes:

Given what is outstanding still in Maricopa County, it looks more and more like Lake is likely to overcome that margin and more comfortably. Still not over until it’s over, but things are shaping up nicely for the Trump-backed candidate even if a little bit on the later side.

UPDATE 2:44 a.m. ET:

Lake is making a huge rally in Election Day vote totals as they roll in, especially from Maricopa County. She’s cut Robson’s lead significantly and might just pull this off:

UPDATE 2:31 a.m. ET:

More call it for Masters in Arizona:

UPDATE 2:24 a.m. ET:

Trump-backed Abe Hamadeh has declared victory in the Attorney General race in Arizona as well:

UPDATE 2:21 a.m. ET:

Meanwhile, in the Arizona governor primary, Kari Lake continues to edge closer to Karrin Taylor Robson. Robson’s 48 percent leads Lake’s 41.8 percent by just over 31,000 votes with 63 percent reporting. Lake is performing strongly in Election Day votes and continues to cut into Robson’s lead as more keep coming in–the only question is whether Lake has enough votes outstanding to make up the difference. It is certainly possible, possibly likely, that Lake can get there.

UPDATE 2:17 a.m. ET:

Decision Desk HQ projects that Blake Masters, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona:

This means Trump is perfect in U.S. Senate endorsements. Every single candidate he has endorsed for U.S. Senate this year has won.

UPDATE 1:27 a.m. ET:

With 61 percent reporting now in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, Lake is inching ever-closer. She’s within 7.7 percent of Robson now.

Masters, meanwhile, is opening his lead up further to 4.4 percent over Lamon–and Hamadeh is still leading in the attorney general race by just under 5 percent.

Arizona is counting extremely slowly, and is unclear if victors will be declared this evening or if this will drag out until tomorrow.

UPDATE 12:50 a.m. ET:

Kari Lake keeps inching closer. The margin is now down to 8.4 percent with still 58 percent reporting.

Meanwhile, the RNC and AZ GOP have blasted Pinal County, Arizona, for serious election issues today:

UPDATE 12:27 a.m. ET:

In the Senate GOP primary in Arizona, however, Trump’s pick Blake Masters is still up a solid 4 percent. That seems likely to hold on as more Election Day votes come in.

UPDATE 12:25 a.m. ET:

As more votes keep coming in, Kari Lake keeps improving her position in Arizona’s GOP gubernatorial primary. With 58 percent in now, she has climbed back to trailing Karrin Taylor Robson by just 8.6 percent. The question is whether enough Election Day votes are still outstanding to get her what she needs.

UPDATE 12:22 a.m. ET:

Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI), another Republican who backed impeachment of then-President Donald Trump in early 2021, has lost his primary to Trump-backed John Gibbs:

UPDATE 12:19 a.m. ET:

Paul Junge has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Michigan’s eighth congressional district and will face Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) in November. This is a key battleground race and is rated as a toss up by the Cook Political Report.

UPDATE 12:12 a.m. ET:

Trump-backed Mark Finchem has won the GOP nomination for Secretary of State in Arizona, another big win for the former president:

UPDATE 12:06 a.m. ET:

In Kansas, Kris Kobach has won the attorney general primary as he mounts a political comeback in the heartland state:

UPDATE 12:05 a.m. ET: 

In Michigan’s third, it looks pro-impeachment Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) is in serious jeopardy of losing his race to Trump-backed John Gibbs:

UPDATE 11:52 p.m. ET: 

Up in Michigan’s third district, Gibbs is back out in front by a few hundred votes over Meijer. The New York Times says 35 percent is reporting there, which would suggest there is a long way to go still–but it is possible that more has reported than that as sometimes news outlets get the percentages reporting off.

UPDATE 11:47 p.m. ET:

Republican Tiffany Smiley will face Democrat Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) in the general election in Washington State. Some Republicans seem to think Smiley has a shot at winning this in the general election given the political climate this year. It will be tough but anything is possible.

UPDATE 11:42 p.m. ET:

It is worth noting that as of now Trump’s endorsement is perfect tonight across the country. There are some tight races out there though so it is as of yet unclear whether that will stay the case, but he is having a strong night no doubt and was up against some serious donor class opposition in lots of places.

UPDATE 11:40 p.m. ET:

It looks like Trump-backed Eli Crane has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Arizona’s second congressional district:

UPDATE 11:34 p.m. ET:

In Washington State, pro-impeachment Republicans Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) and Dan Newhouse (R-WA) are benefitting from divided GOP opposition:

UPDATE 11:18 p.m. ET:

In the Arizona Attorney General race, Trump-backed Abe Hamadeh has a nearly 5 percent lead with 48 percent reporting. He is looking strong after the early vote reports.

UPDATE 11:15 p.m. ET:

With 51 percent reporting in Arizona’s GOP gubernatorial primary, Karrin Taylor Robson has 49.5 percent of the vote and Kari Lake has 40.8 percent. Lake is catching up as more votes are coming in.

UPDATE 11:08 p.m. ET:

In the Senate race in Arizona, Masters–with 35.3 percent–leads Jim Lamon’s 30 percent by about 18,000 votes.

UPDATE 11:07 p.m. ET:

The first votes are in now in Arizona and Trump-backed Blake Masters is leading in the Senate primary by more than five points. Kari Lake, the Trump-backed candidate for governor, is down 10 to start–but these are early voting numbers so expect that to change significantly.

UPDATE 11:00 p.m. ET:

The polls have closed in Washington State. Results are expected there and in Arizona soon.

UPDATE 10:53 p.m. ET:

In Michigan’s third district, Meijer has taken a slight over Gibbs. This race is super close.

UPDATE 10:38 p.m. ET:

It appears voters in Kansas have defeated a ballot measure would have allowed for further abortion restrictions:

UPDATE 10:07 p.m. ET:

Eric Schmitt has won in Missouri, per the AP:

This means Trump wins again, as he endorsed a generic “Eric” the night before the election.

UPDATE 10:04 p.m. ET:

The polls have closed in Arizona and results are expected imminently.

UPDATE 9:57 p.m. ET:

With 15 percent in now in Michigan’s third, it has tightened significantly. Gibbs is down to just 50.8 percent and Meijer is up to 49.2 percent.

UPDATE 9:53 p.m. ET:

With 12 percent reporting now in Michigan’s third district GOP primary, Meijer is still losing with just 46.6 percent as compared with Gibbs’s 53.4 percent.

UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET:

The AP formally calls it for Tudor Dixon, Trump’s selection, in Michigan:

UPDATE 9:10 p.m. ET:

Derek Schmidt, a Trump pick, has won the GOP nomination for governor in Kansas:

UPDATE 9:08 p.m. ET:

In Michigan’s third congressional district with 3 percent reporting, Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI)–one of the 10 Republicans who backed Trump’s impeachment–is losing big to Trump-backed challenger John Gibbs. Gibbs, at 63 percent, is way ahead of Meijer’s 37 percent.

UPDATE 9:01 p.m. ET:

Wasserman from Cook Political Report is saying that he expects Schmitt will win in Missouri:

According to the New York Times, only 4 percent are reporting but Schmitt is at 45.9 percent and Hartzler is at 22.2 percent while Greitens is at 17.9 percent.

UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:

With 2 percent reporting now in Missouri, Schmitt has 44.6 percent and Hartzler has 24.4 percent while Greitens has 16.7 percent.

UPDATE 8:48 p.m. ET:

With 1 percent reporting so far in Missouri, Schmitt has a big lead–but much of what is reporting is from major metro areas like St. Louis and Kansas City. Rural areas are not in yet, so it will be interesting if this dynamic changes or not.

UPDATE 8:41 p.m. ET:

Still less than 3,000 votes are reported and less than 1 percent of primary turnout is reported in Missouri, so these results are insignificant so far but Schmitt has the lead and Vicky Hartzler is in second and Greitens is in third so far.

UPDATE 8:37 p.m. ET:

Wasserman also called the race for Stevens over Levin in Michigan:

UPDATE 8:33 p.m. ET:

Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report has already called it for Tudor Dixon in Michigan in the GOP primary for governor:

UPDATE 8:29 p.m. ET:

In Michigan, in the 11th congressional district Democrat primary, Reps. Haley Stevens (D-MI) and Andy Levin (D-MI) are facing off due to redistricting forcing a member-member primary. Stevens currently has the edge there, but this one has waffled back and forth and is worth watching.

UPDATE 8:27 p.m. ET:

With 2 percent reporting in Kansas in the GOP primary for governor, Trump-backed Derek Schmidt leads big with 74.4 percent of the vote. He is cruising there.

UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:

With 3 percent now reporting in Michigan, Tudor Dixon has expanded her lead to nearly 10,000 votes and has 46.8 percent to Rinke’s 23.1 percent.

UPDATE 8:16 p.m. ET:

The first votes are in now in Michigan’s GOP gubernatorial primary, with 1 percent reporting, and Trump-backed Tudor Dixon is up big. She’s at 46.1 percent and Kevin Rinke is in second with 31.1 percent–a 15 percent lead for Dixon–and while it’s still early that’s a strong start for her.

UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET:

State officials say that turnout in Missouri today is extremely low:

How this affects the race remains to be seen, but it is interesting that despite the intense national political interest and millions of dollars spent that turnout was this low.

UPDATE 8:04 p.m. ET:

The first votes are coming in from Missouri–less than a percent of those cast–and Schmitt has an early lead with 276 votes to 134 for Greitens.

UPDATE 8:01 p.m. ET:

Per former President Donald Trump’s team, beyond his generic “Eric” endorsement in Missouri he has many endorsements on the line tonight including several major federal and statewide endorsements around the country. They are as follows:

Arizona-01 David Schweikert
Arizona-02 Eli Crane
Arizona-05 Andy Biggs
Arizona-08 Debbie Lesko
Arizona-09 Paul Gosar
Arizona-Attorney General Abe Hamadeh
Arizona-Governor Kari Lake
Arizona-Secretary of State Mark Finchem
Arizona-Senate Blake Masters
Arizona-State Senate-07 Wendy Rogers
Arizona-State Senate-09 Rob Scantlebury
Arizona-State Senate-10 David Farnsworth
Arizona-State Senate-27 Anthony Kern
Arizona-State Senate-29 Janae Shamp
Kansas-01 Tracey Mann
Kansas-02 Jake LaTurner
Kansas-04 Ron Estes
Kansas-Governor Derek Schmidt
Kansas-Senate Jerry Moran
Michigan-Governor Tudor Dixon
Michigan-01 Jack Bergman
Michigan-02 John Moolenaar
Michigan-03 John Gibbs
Michigan-04 Bill Huizenga
Michigan-05 Tim Walberg
Michigan-09 Lisa McClain
Michigan-10 John James
Michigan-State House-36 Steve Carra
Michigan-State House-43 Rachelle Smit
Michigan-State House-51 Matt Maddock
Michigan-State House-63 Jacky Eubanks
Michigan-State House-71 Kevin Rathbun
Michigan-State House-79 Angela Rigas
Michigan-State House-88 Mick Bricker
Michigan-State House-99 Mike Hoadley
Michigan-State Senate-17 Jonathan Lindsey
Michigan-State Senate-22 Mike Detmer
Missouri-03 Blaine Luetkemeyer
Missouri-06 Sam Graves
Missouri-08 Jason Smith
Washington-03 Joe Kent
Washington-04 Loren Culp

UPDATE 8 p.m. ET:

The polls have closed in Missouri, Michigan, Kansas, and Ohio. Results are expected imminently in each.

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