*** Election Night Livewire *** Florida, New York, Oklahoma Lock In Party Nominees in Critical Races
Voters in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma vote on Tuesday in key primary, runoff, and special elections in each state that could say a lot about where the nation is headed going into the midterm elections less than three months from now.
In Florida, Democrats will select a gubernatorial nominee between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) to face off against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in November. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) seeks to make her bid for the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate official, and aims to turn her attention formally to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in November.
Down-ticket in Florida, several interesting congressional primaries from the GOP side in Florida’s seventh and thirteenth districts to the Democrat side in Florida’s tenth district are also likely to be interesting.
Up in New York, a special election for the 19th Congressional District between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan could say something about the upcoming midterms. A Molinaro victory would be yet another flip from Democrat control to GOP control in special elections, as this seat was vacated by former Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) when Delgado took the job as Lieutenant Governor for Gov. Kathy Hochul. Molinaro winning would slice House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority down to just three seats, and make it very difficult for Democrats to pass any agenda items before the end of the year.
GOP voters upstate in the Buffalo suburbs will also select a nominee for the new 23rd Congressional District, a nasty primary that has pitted businessman Carl Paladino against New York GOP chairman Nick Langworthy. Republicans will also have several other interesting primaries statewide.
But the main event may be on the Democrat side in New York City, where two longtime Democrats–who are also both top lieutenants of Pelosi as committee chairs–will face off on the island of Manhattan to see who survives. Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) have spent the past several months duking it out in a gnarly Democrat-on-Democrat intra-party war, and the winner will be crowned on Tuesday. Several other Democrats, due to redistricting and New York losing population–and a congressional district–also face interesting primary battles, including Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY). Former President Donald Trump has poked fun at the Democrats by jokingly endorsing several of them in efforts to actually hurt them with Democrat voters. Whether that had any impact remains to be seen.
Down in Oklahoma, GOP voters will select the nominee in the primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring longtime Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK). Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), with former President Trump’s endorsement, has surged to the front of the race, but a late-breaking poll suggests that challenger T.W. Shannon might be stronger than he looks–so Mullin looks to make it official and keep Trump’s U.S. Senate primary endorsement record perfect this cycle.
The polls close in most of Florida at 7 p.m. ET, and in the Central Time zone parts of Florida in the Panhandle, as well as in Oklahoma, at 8 p.m. ET. The polls close in New York at 9 p.m. ET. Follow along here for live updates as the results pour in.
UPDATE 10:19 p.m. ET:
Where things stand in the two New York special elections right now:
DDHQ Race Update: NY-19 Special General
Pat Ryan (D): 29,345
(57.6%)
Marc Molinaro (R): 21,578
(42.4%)Follow more results here: https://t.co/joiucISVxD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 24, 2022
DDHQ Race Update: NY-23 Special General
Max Della Pia (D): 23,521
(56.5%)
Joseph Sempolinski (R): 18,115
(43.5%)Follow more results here: https://t.co/joiucISVxD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 24, 2022
Again, beware the “blue mirage”–these are going to get much tighter and could very well likely flip to the GOP side, especially the Sempolinski race.
UPDATE 9:41 p.m. ET:
It appears as though DCCC chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) has survived a primary challenge:
I’ve seen enough: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) defeats state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D) in the #NY17 Dem primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean D.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET:
The Associated Press calls it for Nadler in New York:
BREAKING: Jerrold Nadler wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in New York’s 12th Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 9:38 p.m. EDT. https://t.co/2nlgpjiEZK
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 9:37 p.m. ET:
A “blue mirage” seems to be showing Democrats leading in early returns in two New York special elections but expect those to change big time very soon:
Beware the “blue mirage” in NY, in which lopsidedly pro-Dem absentee votes reported now will be offset by much redder EDay votes tallied later.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 9:21 p.m. ET:
NBC News projects that Nadler wins the primary against Maloney:
Jerrold Nadler wins U.S. House Democratic primary in New York’s 12th congressional district, NBC News projects. https://t.co/rEGebcwIcu pic.twitter.com/K02bnG7VPS
— NBC News (@NBCNews) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 9:16 p.m. ET:
With 2 percent reporting in the special election in upstate New York in the 19th congressional district, Democrat Pat Ryan is currently leading Republican Marc Molinaro but expect this to change and tighten significantly.
UPDATE 9:13 p.m. ET:
The first results are trickling in from across the Empire State. A few immediate thoughts: With 50 percent reporting in New York’s 10th district Democrat primary, Daniel Goldman–the impeachment lead attorney for House Democrats in Trump’s first impeachment–is currently leading by about 7 percent.
In the 12th district Democrat primary, Jerry Nadler has a commanding lead with 32 percent reporting and looks like he will defeat Carolyn Maloney handily.
With only 8 percent in in New York’s 23rd district GOP primary, Carl Paladino has a sizable lead over Nick Langworthy but still a long way to go there.
UPDATE 9:06 p.m. ET:
Gov. DeSantis’s team is loving the Breitbart homepage right now:
Love to see these headlines @BreitbartNews pic.twitter.com/AqPv4LWvXY
— Christina Pushaw 🐊 🇺🇸 (@ChristinaPushaw) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 9:00 p.m. ET:
The polls are now closed in New York and results are expected there imminently.
UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:
Trump-backed Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) has formally won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma:
BREAKING: Markwayne Mullin wins Republican primary in special election for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma. #APRaceCall at 7:35 p.m. CDT. https://t.co/2nlgpjzI1K
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) August 24, 2022
This means Trump remains perfect in U.S. Senate GOP primary endorsements in 2022. That is nothing short of incredible considering how many open and contested races in which he endorsed.
UPDATE 8:48 p.m. ET:
This is very significant and a big sign of a big red wave:
More Republicans than Democrats voted in Florida today, despite no races at the top of the GOP ballot.
— Karol Markowicz (@karol) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 8:45 p.m. ET:
Martin County, Florida, has flipped:
🚨BREAKING: All three of our candidates in Martin County, Florida have WON their elections.
The Martin County school board now has a conservative majority.
Congrats to Christia Li Roberts, Jennifer Russell, and Amy Pritchett.
— 1776 Project Pac (@1776ProjectPac) August 24, 2022
So has Miami-Dade County:
🚨HUGE: Both of our candidates in Miami Dade County, Florida just WON their elections, flipping the school board conservative.
Miami Dade is now the LARGEST county in America with a conservative school board majority.
Congrats to Roberto Alonso and Monica Colucci.
— 1776 Project Pac (@1776ProjectPac) August 24, 2022
That means now that Miami-Dade is the largest county in America that has flipped from a liberal school board to a conservative school board.
UPDATE 8:43 p.m. ET:
Team DeSantis is calling the wave of conservative school board victories across Florida on Tuesday “The Parents Revolution”:
The Parents Revolution 🙌
— Christina Pushaw 🐊 🇺🇸 (@ChristinaPushaw) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 8:23 p.m. ET:
Another conservative school board candidate victory, this time up in Duval County in Jacksonville, Florida, where April Carney is projected to defeat her leftist opponent and Charlotte Joyce won too. Both were endorsed by Gov. DeSantis:
Charlotte Joyce won re-election to the Duval County School Board, while April Carney was voted in. Both were backed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and had the support of conservative group Moms for Liberty.
Read more at https://t.co/bBtvbzLJps.#duvalvotes #floridaprimary2022 pic.twitter.com/K0nUlFaIm8
— Florida Times-Union (@jaxdotcom) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 8:21 p.m. ET:
This, from Christian Ziegler–the vice chair of the Florida GOP whose wife is one of the conservative school board members in Sarasota–is everything:
This matters:
Republican Turnout Share:
-2018 Primary: 37.97% (Very competitive statewides on R side)
-2020 Primary: 34.47%
-2022 Primary: 48.5% (School Board is the ballot headline)
Been saying it for 2 years now…Parents & Citizens are PISSED at the School Board.
— Christian Ziegler 🇺🇸 (@ChrisMZiegler) August 23, 2022
The GOP focusing on issues, particularly education, is how the party wins. Republicans nationwide need to learn from Florida tonight and this school board sweep that is shaping up. Those numbers are undeniably great for conservatives going into November.
UPDATE 8:19 p.m. ET:
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has easily fended off a primary challenge:
I’ve seen enough: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) defeats Mark Lombardo (R) in the #FL01 GOP primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid R.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
There was a time not too long ago that the establishment thought he was vulnerable so the fact he won within 15 minutes of the polls closing is a big deal–and a decisive victory.
UPDATE 8:17 p.m. ET:
Rep. Dan Webster (R-FL) survived a primary challenge from Laura Loomer, but it was closer than Republicans expected:
I’ve seen enough: Rep. Dan Webster (R) defeats alt-right activist Laura Loomer (R) in the #FL11 GOP primary. But the final margin – single digits – will be a lot closer than House GOP leaders bargained for.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 8:16 p.m. ET:
With 4 percent reporting now in Oklahoma, Mullin has charged out to a huge early lead with more 60 percent while Shannon is below 40 percent.
UPDATE 8:12 p.m. ET:
Only a handful of votes are in in Oklahoma but Mullin has the lead over Shannon to start things there.
UPDATE 8:11 p.m. ET:
With 18 percent reporting now, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has a comfortable more than two-to-one lead over his primary opponent.
UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET:
From former President Donald Trump’s team, here are the endorsements Trump has on the line tonight nationwide:
Florida-01 Matt Gaetz
Florida-02 Neal Dunn
Florida-03 Kat Cammack
Florida-05 John Rutherford
Florida-06 Mike Waltz
Florida-08 Bill Posey
Florida-12 Gus Bilirakis
Florida-13 Anna Paulina Luna
Florida-16 Vern Buchanan
Florida-17 Greg Steube
Florida-18 Scott Franklin
Florida-19 Byron Donalds
Florida-21 Brian Mast
Florida-25 Mario Diaz-Balart
Florida-26 Carlos Gimenez
Florida-Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson
Florida-Attorney General Ashley Moody
Florida-Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis
Florida-Senate Marco Rubio
Florida-State Senate-22 Joe Gruters
Florida-Miami-Dade County-Commission-06 Kevin Marino
Florida-Miami-Dade County-Commission-12 Juan Carlos “JC” Bermudez
New York-11 Nicole Malliotakis
New York-21 Elise Stefanik
New York-24 Claudia Tenney
Oklahoma-Senate Markwayne Mullin
UPDATE 8:07 p.m. ET:
Clay County just flipped too:
🚨BREAKING: All three of our endorsed candidates in Clay County, Florida have WON their elections.
The school board is now a 5-3 conservative majority.
Congrats to Erin Skipper, Michele Hanson, and Ashley Gilhousen.
— 1776 Project Pac (@1776ProjectPac) August 24, 2022
UPDATE 8:06 p.m. ET:
The Sarasota School Board has flipped from a 3-2 liberal majority to a 4-1 conservative majority. This is a landslide there in terms of conservatives fighting back against radical leftism in schools and a very good sign for Republicans for November and a bad sign for Democrats:
🚨BREAKING: All three of our endorsed candidates in Sarasota County, Florida have WON their elections.
We just flipped the school board from a 3-2 liberal majority to 4-1 conservative.
Congrats to Bridget Ziegler, Robyn Marinelli, and Timothy Enos.
— 1776 Project Pac (@1776ProjectPac) August 23, 2022
Conservative candidates in school board races across Florida are doing very well on Tuesday night, and many more are likely to flip. This might be the biggest story out of today’s elections. Keep eyes on Duval County, Clay County, and Miami-Dade.
UPDATE 8:00 p.m. ET:
The polls have closed in the rest of Florida and in Oklahoma now. More results are expected imminently.
UPDATE 7:51 p.m. ET:
Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) has formally won the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate.
U.S. Rep. Val Demings easily wins her Democratic primary race tonight.
She will take on Marco Rubio in November.
Analysts expect it to be a competitive race, as Demings’ support and campaign contributions increase. #ElectionDay @10TampaBay pic.twitter.com/YBWVIVqWS7
— Emerald Morrow (WTSP) (@EmeraldMorrow) August 23, 2022
In response, the campaign of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) lit into Demings over her support for radical leftist policies.
“Marco Rubio has consistently delivered huge wins for Florida families, working across the aisle to improve the lives of people throughout the state. Meanwhile, Pelosi Puppet Val Demings votes for Joe Biden’s failing agenda 100% of the time and would be a rubber stamp for Democrats’ radical agenda in the Senate. Demings is desperately hoping Floridians will look past her record in Washington but this November, Floridians will remember that while Marco delivers results, Val Demings is just another radical rubber stamp,” Rubio communications director Elizabeth Gregory said.
UPDATE 7:43 p.m. ET:
Cory Mills has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Florida’s 7th congressional district:
I’ve seen enough: Cory Mills (R) defeats state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R) in the #FL07 GOP primary. House GOP leaders breathe another sigh of relief. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 23, 2022
UPDATE 7:41 p.m. ET:
Trump wins yet another one tonight–Anna Paulina Luna has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Florida’s 13th congressional district:
I’ve seen enough: Trump-endorsed Anna Paulina Luna (R) defeats Kevin Hayslett (R) in the #FL13 GOP primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 23, 2022
UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET:
Ryan Girdusky, a leading conservative activist who has helped spearhead the school board strategy for conservatives, is projecting big confidence at early returns in Florida:
It’s early, but it looks like @1776ProjectPac is having tremendous victories all across Florida
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) August 23, 2022
UPDATE 7:32 p.m. ET:
A developing story in Florida seems to be school board races, where Republicans may have crushed Democrats:
This vote total encompasses all early votes, some mail votes and none of the election day votes.
Republicans slaughtered Dems in election day votes, so stay tuned and buckle up.
— Steven Walker (@swalker_7) August 23, 2022
More information should be coming soon as these localities report more results.
UPDATE 7:19 p.m. ET:
With 83 percent in now in Florida’s 13th district GOP primary, Luna has expanded her lead over Hayslett and is now up by slightly more than two thousand votes.
UPDATE 7:13 p.m. ET:
Crist wins the Democrat nomination for governor and will face the GOP’s DeSantis in November:
I’ve seen enough: Charlie Crist (D) defeats Nikki Fried (D) in the #FLGOV Dem primary and will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the fall.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 23, 2022
UPDATE 7:12 p.m. ET:
With 74 percent reporting in the 13th district GOP primary, it is a barnburner between Trump-backed Anna Paulina Luna and opponent Kevin Hayslett. Luna leads by just under 200 votes. This one is very close.
Up in the 7th district with 27 percent reporting, it is a much different picture. Cory Mills is leading with 49.4 percent and Anthony Sabatini has 21.2 percent. Still time for Sabatini to make that up but that’s a lot of ground to fill in.
UPDATE 7:09 p.m. ET:
Now, with 20 percent in, Crist is at 64.1 percent and Fried is at 31.4 percent.
UPDATE 7:08 p.m. ET:
We’re up to 12 percent in and Crist has expanded his lead. He’s at 63.8 percent and Fried is down to 31.5 percent. He seems to be the odds-on favorite to face off against DeSantis in November.
UPDATE 7:05 p.m. ET:
How refreshing: Just minutes after the polls closed, the first results are in in Florida. Florida is perhaps the most efficient big state when it comes to election results–after the 2000 election battles the state cleaned up its act and continues to improve on election integrity–and now we are already getting a quick picture of who is winning in key races.
With 8 percent already reporting in the Democrat gubernatorial primary, Charlie Crist has a huge lead over Nikki Fried. He is at 59.2 percent and she is at 35 percent.
UPDATE 7:04 p.m. ET:
Turnout is apparently extremely high for Republicans in the Sunshine State:
In the 2020 Primary, 106,423 total ballots cast.
Today, we are at 102,190 ballots cast with 6+ hrs left of Election Day.
MONSTER Election Day turnout in Sarasota for Republicans so far.
Republicans @ 68% of Election Day vote.
Democrats flat – Almost even with NPAs. #flapol
— Christian Ziegler 🇺🇸 (@ChrisMZiegler) August 23, 2022
Assuming this trend holds it could bode very badly for Democrats going into November, and very good for Republicans.
It’s also worth noting there are a number of school board races around Florida on Tuesday, and those are a major proxy war between the Democrats and the Republicans. The right has the opportunity to flip many school boards around the state, and Gov. DeSantis has been aggressive in endorsing and campaigning for school board candidates.
UPDATE 7:00 p.m. ET:
The polls have closed in most of Florida–except for the Panhandle–now, and results are expected imminently.
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