January 31, 2023

There are many explanations for Trump’s spectacular success in the 2016 election and during the first 30 months of his presidency.  There are as many explanations for his descent into more spectacular
failures.

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Using Occam’s Razor — “plurality should not be posited without necessity” — my view is that Trump has two traits that account for both: Trump is amazingly stubborn and breathtakingly naïve.

Entering and winning the 2016 election required both traits.  Occasionally, not knowing the odds against success is an asset. That occasion has passed.  Over time, naïveté results in failure.  Trump’s failures continue piling up.

1. COVID.  For 30 months as president, Trump successfully implemented standard conservative policies, which were successful, as all of us knew they would be.  Even liberals know that conservative policies work.  They just have a counterproductive agenda.

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COVID provided a novel challenge requiring adaptation.  Trump fell for the Fauci-Birx agenda.  Two weeks to slow the curve became a forever nightmare on Trump’s watch.  As disagreements mounted, Trump left Fauci and Birx in place.  They continued to spread the “shut down” mantra.  Trump started a runaway train and didn’t stop it.

Most performers and politicians know the risks of overexposure.  Trump did not.  He appeared virtually every night on camera with his enemies while facing a hostile press corps.  He gave his enemies ample opportunities to successfully make him look foolish.

Two governors took a different path.  Kemp in Georgia and, to a greater degree, DeSantis in Florida did not shut down.  They took criticism, but, unlike Trump, they rose above it.  Today, Trump is a critic of both men as he stubbornly defends his failure.

There are lessons here.  Some people, in this case Kemp and DeSantis, can deal with novel problems.  They can also overcome a hostile press.

Trump’s record poses two problems.  One is that he could make a similar mistake again.  The greater problem is that a real crisis could arise that demands drastic action.  If DeSantis said we have a major problem, everyone, including liberals, would believe him.  But Trump would be the little boy who cried wolf.

2. Elections.  When asked if the 2020 votes were fairly counted, my response is “I don’t know, and neither do you.”  The numerous anomalies make the answer unknowable.  What we do know is that the often illegal changes in the election laws in several states mean that the election was neither free nor fair.  For example, the mass mailing of ballots invites votes from people who either are dead or have moved away.  The bigger problem is that mass mailing denies everyone a secret ballot.  A ballot-harvester who knows you have a ballot could be an employer, a union leader, or a gangbanger.