February 16, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to blitz Ukraine back into a restored neo-Soviet Russian Empire failed quickly. The drive on the capital city of Kyiv collapsed, the assault on Kharkiv was turned back. Odessa on the Black Sea was never seriously threatened thanks to the stubborn defense of Mariupol and the Ukrainian counterattack in Kherson. But Putin is not backing off as the war moves into its second year. He has told his supporters to prepare for a long war and is massing new forces for an offensive that is likely already underway. British intelligence has estimated that Russian troops are currently suffering their highest casualties of the conflict as they try to advance in the Donbas region. Due to heavy losses in armored vehicles (thanks to U.S. and UK anti-tank weapons), Russians are resorting to “human wave” attacks by poorly trained infantry and mercenaries from the Wagner Group recruited from prisons.

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The Ukrainians have mobilized for the defense of their independence. They are suffering heavily from missile and drone strikes aimed at basic infrastructure, particularly the power needed to heat their homes in winter. The distribution of water and food has also been disrupted. Their forces have suffered heavy casualties in the close combat along the eastern border. But they have held the line and rallied the Western alliance on moral and strategic grounds.

So, who is complaining of “fatigue” and calling for surrender? A handful of Republican members of Congress sitting in their comfortable offices in Washington 5,000 miles from the front lines. The leader of this group manifesting weakness of will and resolve in the face of blatant aggression in the strategic heart of Europe is Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who introduced the Ukraine Fatigue Resolution on February 9 with 10 GOP co-sponsors. It reads, “the United States must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine and urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement.” The wording is important. Aid is to be cut off before any peace agreement. Without military aid, how long would Ukraine last and what would a peace look like other than a Russian victory?

The outcome of the conflict is of no concern to Gaetz and company who are eager to turn a successful policy into a failure. Indeed, in the resolution, he blames the war’s death toll and refugees on us because we have helped Kyiv defend itself. He states “by providing assistance to Ukraine, the United States is inadvertently contributing to civilian casualties.” That Russia started the war by invading its neighbor and has committed numerous war crimes from executing civilians and prisoners to kidnapping children and attacking civil infrastructure is never mentioned. This is the pure doctrine of appeasement that holds that wars are not caused by aggression, but by resisting aggression. If only our side just sat it out, all would be calm beneath the heel of the conqueror.

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Gaetz is “fatigued” because the U.S. has been doing more than any other nation to help Ukraine. Yet, the U.S. is the world’s largest economy, strongest military, and acknowledged leader of the Free World. These are good things, positions to be preserved and reinforced if we are to shape the future to our advantage (and prevent adversaries from shaping the world to our disadvantage). He seems particularly concerned about financial support for Kyiv to address the plight of civilians. His figures show that the U.S. has given more than any other entity, but his list of contributions from European Union institutions and 20 other donor nations when added together exceeds our contribution. The EU has pledged to double its military support this year and several NATO members are taking the lead in providing tanks and armored vehicles.

Gaetz complains that the U.S. has provided in total of $110 billion to Ukraine as if this was an inordinate amount. Yet, the Federal budget is $5.8 trillion, so Ukraine is merely a blip. Over $3 trillion in new domestic spending was rammed through by the Biden Administration in its first two years. Republicans are committed to putting the nation’s fiscal house in order, but national security is not the place to look for cuts, since this is not the sector which has fueled the deficits. Nor is it the proper place to cut given the rising tensions across the world. National security is the core duty of the Federal government and with the return of Great Power competition more attention and effort will have to be devoted to it.

The neglect of military preparedness for Great Power competition is reflected in one aspect of Gaetz’s resolution, his concern that “munitions donated to Ukraine have severely depleted United States stockpiles, weakening United States readiness in the event of conflict.” A report released February 8 by the National Defense Industrial Association found “U.S. policies and financial investments are not currently oriented to support a defense ecosystem built for peer conflict.” Many sectors of the defense industrial base (DIB) lack surge capacity and are dependent on imported components raising supply chain risks. The “war on terror’ was a very small-scale affair that did not require mobilization. Now we are facing real war.

President Donald Trump recognized the danger and issued an executive order in 2017 to assess and revitalize the DIB in terms of potential Great Power conflict with Russia and China. While President Trump took steps to strengthen American power, particularly in regard to the Navy, one term was not enough to rebuild all that was lost during the post-Cold War delusion that history was at an end and military capabilities were no longer important. To replace our stockpiles and prepare for future conflicts will require increasing peacetime production by an order of magnitude. The Ukraine war has given us a lesson on what it takes to fight a major war, and we need to put that wisdom to work. It should be noted that the weapons sent to fight a ground war in Ukraine are different from what will be needed to fight an air-naval battle around Taiwan.

Rep. Gaetz cites the problem, but does not call for any answer, since it would cost far more than we are spending in Ukraine. The congressman has supported some actions against the Chinese threat, but can’t seem to connect the dots between the ambitions of Putin and Chairman Xi Jinping. Yet, just before Putin invaded Ukraine, he and Xi declared they had an “unlimited partnership” in rejecting the U.S.-led world order. Chairman Xi’s case for invading Taiwan is the same as Putin’s in Ukraine; rebuilding an empire that can compete for world domination.  

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently noted that China is watching the Ukraine closely. Xi is also testing the U.S. alliance system with intensified military threats against Taiwan and Japan. Russia joined China in joint naval exercises in September and December, and another is planned for February. The two powers flew a joint “patrol” of strategic bombers in November that menaced Japan and South Korea. China is also supplying Russia with computer chips, drones and other supplies that support its war effort in Ukraine, while buying Russian oil to help finance it. Any wavering of Western resolve that allows Russia to advance in Europe will have repercussions for peace and the balance of power in Asia and the Middle East. If the U.S. cuts aid to Ukraine, Xi will warn Taiwan to expect the same copout. Russia has promised Iran Su-35 jets in exchange for the drones Tehran has been sending for combat in Ukraine. Rep. Gaetz and his cronies are giving the aggressors the sign of weakness they have been looking for. This will only encourage more attacks. We expect this kind of perfidy from the Left, but it seems one can fall into the pit from any direction.