Following the IDF’s targeted killing of three top Islamic Jihad leaders in the middle of the night between Monday and Tuesday, Israel was still awaiting a potentially massive counter-strike of rockets from Gaza on Tuesday night.
The main questions are: When will Islamic Jihad strike back, will Jihad fire rockets beyond the South and will Hamas join in a serious way for the first time since the May 2021 Gaza conflict?
On one hand, Hamas’ Gaza leadership does not take orders from Iran, has avoided multiple rounds of fighting between Israel and Islamic Jihad over the last two years and IDF intelligence views it as currently preferring stability over war. On the other hand, Hamas cannot afford to appear weak in the eyes of its general public in comparison to Islamic Jihad.
Further, former IDF intelligence chief Tamir Hayman said that Hamas’ leadership outside of Gaza often is more in favor of conflict, for one because it does not put them or their immediate teams in danger.
Operation Shield and Arrow
Israel’s proactive strike, dubbed Operation Shield and Arrow, on the three Islamic Jihad leaders was framed by Israeli political and military officials as a move to reestablish deterrence following the recent round of rockets and airstrikes on May 2-3.
A fire burns in a building after the Israeli military struck Islamic Jihad targets, it said in a statement, in Gaza, May 9, 2023 (credit: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)Throughout Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials held consultations with key security officials, including finally discussing the issues with the security cabinet – who was not informed of the strike on Islamic Jihad beforehand.
Already Tuesday evening, Islamic Jihad had started to try to respond, but at least one of its rocket crews was killed when the air force destroyed a car holding a rocket crew of two on their way to attack.
The officials assassinated in the earlier IDF strikes included: Khalil Bahitini, the commander of the al-Quds Brigades in the northern Gaza Strip, Tareq Ezzaldin, a spokesperson for the movement who also manages terrorist activities in the West Bank and Gaza, and Jihad Ghanem, secretary of the movement’s military council.
They were all killed almost simultaneously, within minutes of each other, by a mix of around 40 aircraft and drones.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Tuesday that already on May 2 he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had approved the IDF and Shin Bet moving toward such a major operation.
The week-long delay was attributed to a mix of technical factors, such as weather, avoiding larger ancillary civilian casualties and other factors.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant Tuesday night said, “This episode was not just an act of terror, but against our residing in our land.”
“The goals were realized in their entirety. Islamic Jihad’s Gaza leadership was eliminated,” he said.
חותמים את היום הראשון של מבצע ״מגן וחץ״.זו הזדמנות להודות באופן אישי לרמטכ״ל הרצי הלוי ולראש השב״כ רונן בר, המנהיגים את צה״ל ואת שירות הביטחון הכללי באחריות ובמקצועיות. אני מאחל לכוחות הביטחון המשך הצלחה במערכה נגד הטרור pic.twitter.com/nK2g8DHPSB
— יואב גלנט – Yoav Gallant (@yoavgallant) May 9, 2023
Further, Gallant said, “We can multiply it and carry it out on other fronts and against varying threats. Anyone who tries to test us, will face the full force of the defense establishment and its iron wall defending the State of Israel.”
IDF chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that anyone who acted constantly to harm Israelis in Sderot or anywhere else would not be immune from paying the price.
Halevi added he was saddened by the ancillary harm to civilians, but that the IDF had worked hard to avoid such harm, unlike the Gazan terror groups who aim directly at civilians.
Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar flagged the role of Iran in pressing for its proxies in Gaza and elsewhere to increase conflicts with Israel.
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