Hamas has ‘too much to lose’ by firing rockets at Israel – expert

Hamas has “more to lose” than gain by involving itself in the recent round of rocket barrages toward Israel following the launch of the IDF’s Operation Shield and Arrow, military expert and former Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) official Dr. Moshe Elad told 104.5FM on Tuesday.

“Now, they are looking up to the sky and searching [for IDF aircraft] because they have been complacent due to the assumption that Israel is supposedly holding its fire,” Elad told Gadi Ness in reply to whether Israeli forces will find themselves in another direct confrontation with the Palestinian terror group in control of the Strip.

Hamas ‘carefully considering’ response to Israeli strikes

“The question is” whether the Palestinian Resistance Factions, which includes including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), will issue an order to attack Israel, Elad continued.

“That is a very interesting question and, in my opinion, an attack by Hamas is under careful consideration because they have more to lose. There are close to 20,000 Palestinian workers who leave the Gaza Strip for work every day, [Hamas] understands this will no longer be the case if it opens fire.”

Rockets are fired from Gaza into Israel, in Gaza May 10, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)

Elad also speculated on the possibility that Hamas units stationed across southern Lebanon will open fire at Israel’s North. “They established a sub-Hezbollah, all under the Lebanese terror organization’s watchful eyes. The question is whether it allows the Hamas factions in Lebanon to launch rockets or will they have to wait for confirmation from Iran.

“This scenario is plausible,” Elad told 104.5FM. “Including an order from the Iranians to start firing at Israel from all theaters, including Iran itself. This would be an all-out war,” he said.

Military expert: An all-out war between Iran and Israel is possible

Elad further warned the IDF that it might have to operate in three-to-four theatres simultaneously. “Yes, we will be prepared. [We will be in big trouble] if we had not come prepared for this scenario.

According to Elad, Operation Shield and Arrow will force Israel to commit more of an effort in the long term to provide some ‘air to breathe’ in the region, adding that he expects that by the end of the operation, the Middle East’s map will appear kind to Israel.

“If there is a multi-front war, the IDF will be able to handle it,” the military expert concluded. “But it will come at the expense of something else.”

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