May 14, 2023

For some time, optimists like me have had to work hard to keep believing that reason will prevail. I now think, as reality sets in, my faith in reason, though too long delayed, is not unwarranted. This week is, I think, the beginning of the end for some nutty thinking and policies.

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Climate Change

I’ve always believed that destroying the world’s economies and impoverishing poor people around the globe in a narcissistic belief that man can control the climate was lunacy. More research revealed every week justifies my belief that this war on reliable, plentiful fossil fuels has been pure hokum. This week, the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) took a major hit to its credibility.

The credibility of the disaster-addicted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been dealt a damaging blow with recently-published research showing that 42% of its climate scenarios rely on improbable rises in future temperature that even the UN-funded body believes are of “low likelihood”. The research notes the IPCC admission of improbability is “deeply buried” in the full Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6), and is “unlikely to be read by the policy makers”. The authors note that significant and important sections of the full IPCC work emphasise these improbable claims, “potentially invalidating those sections of the report”.

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Climate and emissions outline SSP5-8.5 assumes a rise of around 5°C by the end of the century. It was always somewhat detached from reality and has long been dealt a death blow, given that global warming ran out of steam about 25 years ago. [snip] Leaving aside the small natural boost from a very powerful EL Niño oscillation around 2016, warming is little more than  0.1°C over two decades. Nevertheless, SSP5-8.5 gives credence to 42% of the IPCC’s work in AR6. [snip]

The authors are damning about much of the IPCC’s work. In addition to emphasising worst-case scenarios, it rewrites climate history, has a “huge bias” in favour of bad news against good news, and keeps the good news out of its widely-distributed Summary for Policymakers (SPM). One notable contradiction surrounds flooding, where the AR6 IPCC report states with “low confidence” that humans have contributed to it, yet the Summary for Policymakers promotes the opposite, stating that human influence has increased “compound” flooding.

With reality contradicting hype, claims for climate reparations — actually, stealing from better-functioning countries to pay worse ones — should die. Of course, there are still many people who are profiting from this hype:

True Science PEng, DFP, MA, MBA.

All through history, there have been future foretellers — prophets. The IPCC is simply a 21st-century prophet. They believe that they can predict the temperature in one hundred years’ time with 0.1-degree accuracy, and like Scientology, they have many faithful disciples. 

Reparations