Will Syria increase pressure on US forces? – analysis
Pro-Iranian media reported that the Syrian regime claims that its forces in eastern Syria prevented US forces from transiting a sensitive and important area in northeastern Syria, near Tal Tamr.
The claims that the Syrian regime has tried to harass US soldiers or set up a checkpoint to “inspect” vehicles is part of a larger attempt by the Syrian regime to normalize with Arab countries and confront other forces in Syria.
Iran has an interest in trumpeting tensions with the US in Syria, to encourage the Syrian regime to confront the Americans.
Iranian actions against the US in Syria
For more than a decade, Syria was divided by civil war. Today most of the independent rebel groups have been defeated. In northwest Syria, the extremist group HTS controls parts of Idlib and Afrin, with Turkey’s quiet support. Another Turkish-backed group called the SNA also controls parts of Afrin and areas around Jarabulus and Serekaniye. Some of these areas were home to the Kurdish minority before Turkey’s invasion of them in 2018 and 2019.
In eastern Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces control a large area that is generally sparsely populated. Along the border with Turkey, there is an element of mixed control of SDF, Syria’s regime and Russia.
When Turkey invaded in the fall of 2019 and the Trump administration ordered US forces to withdraw from areas such as Kobani, the Russians and regime filled the vacuum left by US forces. Later, Iran also made inroads. Iranian-backed militias have carried out almost 80 attacks against US forces in Syria since January 2021.
Syria’s regime has consolidated power over most of the country in the last several years, with backing from Russia and Iran. Russia, Iran and Turkey all oppose the US presence in Syria. In the last several months Damascus has also made impressive inroads in the Arab world with high-level meetings and a return to the Arab League. What this means is that there is pressure on the US to leave Syria.
The Syrian regime, and its Iranian and Russian backers, cannot confront the US directly. This means they prefer smaller tactics, such as using proxies to fire rockets or creating tensions in eastern Syria. This is why they have highlighted an incident near Tel Tamr. Tel Tamr is an area where the Christian minority was largely forced to flee Ankara’s 2019 invasion. Now the SDF and Ankara-backed groups exchange fire sometimes near Tel Tamr. This makes the area one of tension. Ankara uses drones to attack the SDF. The US works closely with the SDF against ISIS.
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