Over 2,900 drones have been lost by Russia so far in the war on Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.
Ukrainian air defenses also intercepted more than 300 drones in the month of May, according to the Ukrainian Air Force’s data published on Telegram and social media.
Ukraine said that Russia had already lost 2,476 drones by May 1. Some of the drones that Russia has lost in Ukraine are not necessarily downed by air defense and some of them are smaller surveillance drones.
The more dangerous drones that Russia has used are the Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones that Moscow has been importing and using for the last year.
Russia increases its drone attacks on Kyiv
Over the last several weeks, Russia has increased its attacks on Kyiv. These come in the context of an expected Ukrainian offensive this spring or summer.
An explosion of a drone is seen in the sky over the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine May 28, 2023. (credit: GLEB GARANICH/REUTERS)Moscow appears to want to terrorize the capital of Ukraine. While most drones and missiles are intercepted by Ukrainian air defense, the drones nevertheless can cause terror to civilians because of the air raid sirens and the explosions in the sky if and when they are intercepted. According to reports, Russia launched another massive wave of attacks overnight between Saturday and Sunday.
The Ukrainian Air Force puts out data on how many drones and missiles it intercepts. This data is usually published online and in various Ukrainian media and on a Telegram channel. According to a review of the data, Ukraine intercepted 309 drones during the month of May. While some drones appear to have impacted Kyiv, most of them have been intercepted. This illustrates that Ukrainian air defense is becoming more proficient over time. Ukraine uses a variety of air defenses, some of them supplied by the West, such as the Patriot system and IRIS-T.
The loss of so many drones by Russia would appear to be draining the Moscow stockpile of Iranian-designed drones. This would be the case if the numbers are accurate and if Russia has not already acquired hundreds of more drones. These are varieties of the Shahed 131 and Shahed 136.
Reports in February indicated Russia wanted to manufacture these drones locally. It’s unclear if that facility is up and running and how many drones it can produce. These drones are relatively cheap to make and it appears that Moscow’s use of them has aided Iran in increasing its economy of scale in terms of building large numbers of these delta-wing style one-way kamikaze drones.
Last year, it was believed Russia had already used hundreds of these drones. If the data from the month of May are correct, this could have been the worst month for Russia’s Iranian drones since the start of the war.
In mid-May, the US indicated that Russia was seeking more drones from Iran. It had already used some 400 drones that were supplied by Tehran.
“Iran also continues to provide Russia with one-way attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). Since August, Iran has provided Russia with more than 400 UAVs primarily of the Shahed variety,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, according to a report at PBS.
Moscow’s massive attacks on Kyiv are mostly being countered by Ukraine’s air defenses. It is unclear what Russia may do next as it continues to deplete its stock of missiles and drones. Russia turned to Iran for the drones initially because it wanted to wage war on the cheap.
Moscow’s decision to carry out a war against cities in Ukraine, using drones indiscriminately against civilian urban areas is a method that Moscow apparently hoped would terrorize Ukraine. However, Moscow’s drones haven’t worked and it also showcases the overall failure of Iran’s drones in general. Iranian drones can be intercepted by air defenses.
So far there have been no updates to the drones that give them capabilities to evade or maneuver around the existing defenses. The loss of so many Iranian-designed drones is evidence of this.
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