The US could be trying to hedge its bets on tensions with Russia by trying to cool down tensions with China and Iran.
Russia is a close partner of China and Iran and both countries are also challenging the US. China is ratcheting up tensions around Taiwan while Iran is threatening US forces in Syria and in the Gulf.
For America, this presents the possibility of a multi-front conflict, or in reality, a multi-front arena of tensions where countries try to poke at US global hegemony to test US responses. The US can’t respond to everything, in fact as the China “spy balloon” story illustrated, one crisis at a time is usually enough.
Therefore, recent reports illustrate the US may be shifting its posture a bit. According to Axios, “Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, took a low-profile trip to Oman earlier this month for talks with Omani officials on possible diplomatic outreach to Iran regarding its nuclear program, according to five US, Israeli and European officials.”
CIA director travels to China
CNN reported last week also that “CIA Director Bill Burns secretly traveled to China last month, a US official told CNN Friday, amid efforts by the United States to reset relations with Beijing after a year of extremely heightened tensions.”
US PRESIDENT Joe Biden meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, in November. A China-dominated Middle East would threaten US trade and national security, says the writer. (credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS)According to that report, a US official, Burn “met with Chinese counterparts and emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels.”
At Al-Monitor over the weekend a report noted that Israel may be non-plussed by any US outreach to Iran.
“The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, is ‘not on the agenda right now,’ according to the White House, but US-Iran diplomacy nonetheless continues indirectly through trusted intermediaries.”
But the report notes Israel is alarmed by the potential of a US “backchannel.”
On the one hand, reports show that there could be some kind of compromise. On the other hand, reports illustrate Iran is increasing threats to US forces in Syria and that Gulf tensions are growing. The US appears also to be concerned about Iran’s claims to want a naval partnership with the Gulf states.
A report last week said the UAE had left the US-led CMF, a maritime coalition of 34 countries. Meanwhile, any US initiative with China also faces hurdles. The AP says China defends buzzing an American warship and FT says the US had warned China against its behavior. If any work on military dialogue or de-escalating tensions is not progressing, then how can the US work things out with Beijing?
It may be that the source of tensions is too large and too much water has flowed under the bridge. However, on the other side of the coin, the US must make these attempts because the prospect of facing new Iranian threats in Syria and also clashes somewhere in Asia, and also need to fund the war in Ukraine could overstretch the US. Therefore countries like Israel and also other US allies are watching closely.
The US messaging on all these cases does not always indicate clearly what the US policy actually is. As a US election will loom next year, Washington’s room to maneuver may become more narrow. This is important in the context of the next moves regarding Iran and China and this could affect the Middle East.
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