The Middle East is changing. A new diplomatic era has emerged in the region that is reducing conflict in Yemen, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. Countries that were once rivals or adversaries are now holding talks or reconciling. Israel is among the countries that have been part of this shift, particularly through the Abraham Accords. However, some of the changes in the region, such as China’s growing influence, Syria’s return to the Arab League, and Iran-Saudi ties could present challenges for Israel depending on how those initiatives develop.
Israel is well positioned in the Middle East today. This week Israel announced a huge success in defense exports – in 2022 those exports were more than $12 billion. The Abraham Accords countries accounted for almost a quarter of those deals. This is a huge increase in a short period of time. But defense deals are only a part of the larger picture. Israel has important strategic ties with Azerbaijan and India and is increasing its close partnerships with Cyprus and Greece.
This means that the real story of Israel’s position in the region is its connections to multiple countries that link central Europe with the region and then link to India and the Pacific.
Diplomatic ties are important and it would be preferable if Israel could normalize with Saudi Arabia and other countries. Some of those steps may be complex and there are hurdles. However, the larger picture is that Israel’s current relationships are sufficient to be built on and taken to new levels. What this means it that Israel can and should manage and improve the ties it has with Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE, Bahrain, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan, and other states that are part of the current framework. Israel’s top diplomat Eli Cohen has been making a number of historic trips abroad and this caps several years of successful diplomatic meetings that increased since 2020.
The challenge for Israel comes in several forms. The Ukraine war has led to a major effort at rearmament among countries. Everyone now recognizes that conventional war is no longer a thing of the past. The US-led “global war on terror” is now largely over.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, June 6, 2023 (credit: VIA REUTERS)While it’s true that there are still ISIS threats in Iraq and Syria, the recent dispatch of US F-22s and B-1 Lancer bombers to the region is not about fighting ISIS, it is about deterring or sending a message to Russia, Iran, and the wider region.
Whereas the war on terror is over and there is a shift in focus to Ukraine, there is also competition for any vacuum that may exist in the Middle East. China’s outreach to the Gulf and Iran is part of that attempt to fill a vacuum. In addition, the Arab League’s outreach to Syria is part of a judgment that the West may be less relevant and the region needs to repair its own relationships. This is also why it’s interesting that Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to South America this week while Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is in France. On the one hand, Iran wants to challenge the US closer to home and show it can get around sanctions. Saudi Arabia wants to carve out a new era in its diplomacy and influence. France is also seeking new inroads in Lebanon and talking to Tehran.
On the one hand Israel could be concerned that any shift in Syria’s position could lead to more Iranian entrenchment in Syria and therefore lead to tensions. Iran has held meetings with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah this week and talked up threats to Israel. Iran also unveiled a “hypersonic” missile. Messaging from Tehran is more about boosting the ego of its proxies, than any game-changing actions in Syria.
What this means is that while developments are less than ideal, such as the chance the Arab League could critique Israel’s Syria policy, or China’s hosting of Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, along with the lack of normalization with Saudi Arabia; there are a lot of winds blowing in the right direction.
The incredible technology that underpins Israel’s success in the defense sector shows how important it is to have a strong local defense industry and partner with international defense giants. Close ties with the US and the West are at historic levels of partnership. US support for the Abraham Accords is also increasing. This is a huge shift from the days when some in the West suggested using the lack of recognition of Israel as a kind of stick to pressure Israel into a deal with Abbas.
What happens next?
The question that must be asked is what happens next. Turkey’s leader is cemented in charge for another five years. Perhaps the next five years will have less tension than the very problematic era of 2010-2020 in Turkey-Israel ties. China’s increased role in the Gulf and with Iran, as well as its outreach to the Palestinians, is an important development; as is the Syrian re-integration into the Arab League. Questions remain about US policy in Syria and also the potential for destabilization if there is any major US shift in policy in eastern Syria.
It’s worth considering that a new Middle East order is emerging. The ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran; China’s role, the reintegration of Syria; the Abraham Accords – these are all examples of major shifts in the region that trend toward diplomacy and stronger state-to-state ties; as opposed to the breakdown of states which occurred between 2003 and 2015.
Israel’s powerful economy and defense exports are important in an era of strong states and they helped Israel weather the era of chaos that was unleashed by terror groups. Reducing the role of terror armies, such as Hezbollah or Hamas; and Iranian-backed militias is important to fully bring stability to the region. That will remain a challenge in the years ahead.
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