July 5, 2023

By 2024, Barack Obama’s Marxist-infused Democrat Party will have held America hostage for 12 out of 16 years.  This nation cannot survive if the Democrats are in control for another 4-8 years with what will become an irreversible stranglehold on the federal bureaucracy and judiciary (including the Supreme Court).  If the Republicans do not win the presidency and Congress in 2024, this nation may well have passed the point of no return.

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To paraphrase James Carville from 1992: it’s the general election, stupid.  Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and all those running for the nomination, but above all the Republican primary voters, must keep that in mind over the next 12-15 months.

Currently the Republican primary voters are solely focused on meaningless polls that  show Donald Trump running roughshod over Ron DeSantis and nine others who have declared themselves as candidates.  On the other hand,  in the swing states that will determine the winner in November of 2024, equally meaningless polls reveal DeSantis easily beating Biden.

Polls fifteen months from the general election are nothing more than a snapshot of the sentiment of the groups surveyed at the time of polls themselves.   However, as the shadow of Donald Trump has loomed over both the 2020 presidential and 2022 mid-terms, an analysis of the voting electorate from the exit polling data gathered after both elections is a more meaningful predictor of 2024.

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Exit polls, like every other type of survey, are subject to margins of error and a certain level of bias.  Unlike pre-election polls, the voters are interviewed upon leaving their polling places.  The primary variables are the veracity of the respondents and the choosing of representative precincts to poll throughout the nation.  Historically, the results have been generally accurate indicators of the sentiment of the voters, thus eliminating any impact from election fraud or manipulation. The rise of mass mail-in voting is an imponderable factor in assessing these results, however.

The highlights of the 2020 exit polling are the following:

  • By party identification: Democrats (who represented 37% of voters) chose Biden by 94-5%.  Republicans (36%) similarly chose Trump 94-6%.  The independents (26%) who opted for Biden by 54 to 41% were the swing voters that affected the outcome of the election.
  • Even more telling is the vote by age groups.  Among voters aged 18-45, Biden defeated Trump by 14 percentage points 56-42%.  Among all other age groups Trump defeated Biden by just 2 percentage points 51-49%.
  • Among suburban voters, a key demographic which represents 51% of voters, Biden won 50-48%.  Additionally, women (52% of voters) chose Biden 57-42% while Trump won among men 53-45%. 
  • Despite a monumental effort by Trump to make inroads into the minority populations, Biden won 87% of the Blacks, 65% of the Hispanics, and 61% of the Asians.  
  • 50% of respondents said they were concerned or scared if Trump were to be re-elected and voted accordingly.

Mid-Term elections are considered to be a referendum on whoever is in the White House and their party.   In late October of 2022, Biden’s approval rating had sunk to a dismal 39% due to rampant inflation, covid vaccine mandates, unmitigated chaos at the southern border, dangerously incoherent foreign policy, and his obvious mental decline and incompetence.   The mid-terms, therefore, were predicted to be an electoral landslide for the Republicans,

Per the exit polls, an unsurprising 32% of voters said their vote was solely “to oppose Joe Biden.”   But unexpectedly and for the first time in exit polling history, a significant percentage of respondents claimed they voted in opposition to someone who was not in office or a declared candidate.  An astounding 28% of voters said their vote was solely “to oppose Donald Trump” even though he had been out office for two years and had not announced his candidacy for president.  This unprecedented opposition would also affect those candidates endorsed by Trump that were running in close toss-up elections.   

This exit polling result suggests that Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party made the 2022 mid-terms, in the minds of many voters, almost as much about a former president as it was about a failed president and the party in power.

The highlights of the 2022 exit poll delineate the dismal performance of the Republican candidates when virtually everyone was predicting the Republicans would win anywhere from 25-40 House races (won 9) and capture 2-4 seats in the Senate (lost 1 seat):

  • Democrats (who represented 33% of voters) and Republicans (36%) each chose their respective party candidates by a 96-3% margin.  The independents (31%) picked Democrat candidates by a 49-47% margin.
  • Women (52% of voters) chose the Democrats 53-45% while men opted Republican 56-43%. 
  • By age groups, those 18-45 voted 56-42% for the Democrat candidates and all other age groups went Republican 54-45%.
  • The Democrat candidates won 86% of the Blacks, 60% of the Hispanics, and 58% of the Asians.