Russia is increasing its rhetoric about the US role in Syria after a series of incidents in which Russian warplanes have harassed and even damaged US drones. The US uses Reaper drones in Syria and has also moved F-22s to the Middle East due to Russia’s threats. US forces operate in Syria to fight ISIS and back the Syrian Democratic Forces, but the Syrian landscape is complex, and Russia plays a role in backing the Syrian regime. Turkey also occupies part of Syria.
According to Russian state media TASS, “Russia is ready for any scenario, but does not want a direct military clash with the US, the country’s President Vladimir Putin said when asked about the US side’s provocations in Syria.”
Putin went on to say that “we are always ready for any scenario, but no one wants this, and on the initiative of the American side we once created a special mechanism to prevent these conflicts. Our heads of certain departments communicate directly with each other, [and] have the opportunity to consult on any crisis situation. This shows that no one wants clashes,” Putin told reporters.
Russia accuses the US of “dangerous approaches” to Russian aircraft. This is merely Russia making the same accusation the US has made, basically upping the rhetoric and war of words against the US. Russia hopes to balance the US claims, which are backed up by video footage from the drones.
While the US claims are backed up by evidence, there does not appear to be evidence that US drones have done any approaches to Russian aircraft. Reaper drones do not fly very vast, compared to Russian fighter jets. In fact, the Russian SU-34 or Su-35 can fly four times as fast as the US Reaper.
Two Russian Su-35 aircraft unsafely intercept a P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft assigned to U.S. 6th Fleet over the Mediterranean Sea May 26, 2020 (credit: US 6TH FLEET)This is the equivalent of a jet fighter against a World War Two-era propeller plane, in terms of speed differences.
Nevertheless, Russia is apparently accusing the US of using Reaper drones in some kind of Top Gun-like maneuvers, flying “dangerously close” to Russian Su-35s and Su-34s in northwest Syria. Russian state media TASS said, “according to the Russian side, since the beginning of this year, the aviation of the US-led international coalition has made 23 dangerous approaches to the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the skies over Syria, while drones have violated flight safety in Syria 340 times. On July 27 alone, fighter jets of the pro-US anti-terror coalition violated Syrian airspace eight times.”
Comments regarding potential spillover of conflict in Syria mirror Ukraine
Putin’s comments about a potential clash in Syria are interesting because of concerns that the Ukraine conflict could lead to a clash with NATO. Now Russia is upping rhetoric about Syria.
While Putin’s claims are wrapped in words about not wanting a clash, clearly this is a threat about a potential clash. Putin’s comments have been reported in Middle East media, such as Al-Ain and elsewhere. This is a new level of Russian rhetoric about Syria.
Moscow is clearly concentrating on US drone operations. Because the drones fly more slowly and often lack defenses, it is easier for Russia to monitor them than to have to go up against the advanced F-22 fighter jet. US drones are also apparently flying more missions over northwest Syria near Idlib, Afrin, and other areas where Turkey’s occupation forces are present.
Extremist groups such as Al Qaeda and the remnants of ISIS often operate in areas where Turkish forces are present and where the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels operate, along with other groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
As such, it may be that US drones are in northwest Syria primarily to monitor extremist groups and wait for targets of opportunity to emerge. However, from Russia’s perspective, the drones may be a way to interdict or deter Russian operations in Idlib against groups like HTS. This means that Russia would likely prefer the prying eyes of US drones be removed. The overall evidence is that incidents between the US and Russia in Syria are increasing.
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