July 31, 2023

Right before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kiev could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine takes place. But why, if the US expected Ukraine to collapse, didn’t NATO stop the impending conflict by admitting that NATO had no intention of having Ukraine join the alliance? Then, Moscow’s security concerns emanating from NATO’s eastward expansion would be addressed, and Putin would have had no reason to attack Ukraine.

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Isn’t what expected from the alliance whose stated mission is:

NATO is an active and leading contributor to peace and security on the international stage. It promotes democratic values and is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes.

But after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization launched itself across the world in a wave of ideological exaltation to reshape the world around Western values. The world has witnessed the pursuit of NATO’s new mission statement in the Balkans, Lebanon, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now in Ukraine.

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After the humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, NATO needed another war to justify its existence. This war was supposed to contrast with previous NATO misadventures. It would be sharp and short with no Western casualties. And, this time, NATO would be victorious.

NATO leaders seemed to relish the prospect of war. When in December 2021, in a last-ditch effort, Putin demanded that NATO stop eastward expansion and committed to not admitting Ukraine to NATO, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrogantly rejected any discussion of the subject.

Nothing prevented Zelensky from avoiding the war either. If he had renounced his request for NATO membership, it would have satisfied Moscow’s demands, and the invasion would have been called off. However, the corrupt rulers in Kiev were not motivated by concern for the stability and integrity of Ukraine. They were moved by billions in financial and military aid and unlimited prospects for personal enrichment.

Some Europeans, locking any capacity on their own for revenge for centuries of defeats and humiliation, saw an opportunity for reprisal, especially without direct military involvement. Biden looked forward to extricating himself from Afghanistan and making the Ukrainian crisis a turning point in his presidency.

Ironically, everybody wanted this war except Putin.

Indeed, NATO designed a daring gambit. The strategy was that America and its allies would provoke Moscow’s invasion and use it as a pretext to impose devastating sanctions on Russia. The sanctions were supposed to cripple the Russian economy and create domestic pressure on President Putin, which would force him out of power. Putin’s exit would create a power vacuum, which would weaken Russia geopolitically. What would happen to Ukraine was irrelevant; it served as bait.