Should Israel permit fewer Palestinian workers after terror attack? – analysis

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) has not yet explained how or why the Ma’aleh Adumim terrorist who wounded six on Tuesday got past their system for detecting potential terror threats to receive a work permit in Israel.

But even before that explanation comes out, Ma’aleh Addumim’s Acting Mayor Guy Yifrach announced that he was expelling all Palestinians with workers’ permits from the city and would not allow them back in until further notice.

This raises the old debate about how many workers’ permits for Palestinians are good or bad for security and whether the criteria for Palestinians receiving work permits should be made stricter or more lenient.

Some say that basically all workers are guaranteed or much more likely to avoid terror so the numbers should be greatly increased.

Others worry that it only requires a few bad apples to lead to a terror wave being augmented and that making the criteria too lenient is too big a security risk.

The debate over Palestinian workers’ permits: Is it good or bad for security?

Although the debate has gone up and down over the decades, it particularly heated up in the spring of 2022, when the current waves of terror from the West Bank began.

At the time, the IDF pressed for increasing the number of Palestinian workers’ permits, including if the criteria needed to be made more lenient.

The Shin Bet supported the workers permit program as it stood, but protested making the criteria more lenient.

Back in April 2022, there were reportedly around 120,000 Palestinians with permits for working within the Green Line, of which around 92,000 actually had work. 

Given that there are currently already 210-220,000 Palestinians working in Green Line Israel or for Jews in the West Bank, along with around 18,000 Palestinians from Gaza, it seems that the IDF won at least a portion of the debate to increase the permits and make some criteria more lenient.

A Shin Bet source referred to the IDF regarding any number increases.

Still, the IDF did not get everything it wanted.

There is still a general cut-off of Palestinians being able to get Israeli work permits only after passing age 27. At that point, according to the Shin Bet, the risks of terror and the likelihood of wanting to support a family and achieve a stable life begin to shift.

However, some in the defense establishment would have liked to have already lowered that age cut-off to 25 and are still pushing for this – something which could substantially increase the number of Palestinian workers Israel permits.

Some in the defense establishment would also, in certain circumstances, want to significantly increase the number of worker permits for Palestinians from Gaza.

Neither the IDF nor the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) are making their positions on the issue public, but they will be under extra pressure following the Ma’aleh Adumim attack.

Until recent years, there had been zero attacks from such workers.

In recent years, there have been a small number of exceptions to that rule as with Ma’aleh Adumim, but statistically speaking, the percentage of terror attacks from such persons is still close to zero.

So when Ma’aleh Adumim freezes such programs, is it saving Israeli lives from a program that has lowered its standards, leading to some of the recent flaws and attacks? Or will freezing Palestinians out of jobs they thought they had, drive some who had come to terms with coexistence with Israel for money, to terror?

Not that hardcore terrorists need a reason to want to kill Jews or Israelis.

But there is a category of Palestinians who can be moved in a more normalized or more violent direction.

With the prospects dim of a great diplomatic solution or greater security operation resolving the almost 18 months of terror, one of the best ways that Israel may be able to influence the waves to go up or down may be to thread the needle of the workers’ program – maximizing economic benefits for Palestinians, while learning lessons to keep terrorists off the list.

According to a UN report, around 66% of Palestinians are under the age of 29. This means that a huge and increasing number of Palestinians between the age of 17-29 could be unemployed, which puts them at greater risk to turning to terror, if only because they have little else to do. This is within a population of around three million Palestinians in the West Bank.

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