US further upgrades Russian wheat-export outlook

Russia is projected to send 48 million tons of wheat for export in the current agricultural year (July 2022 to June 2023), according to the latest review issued by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released on Friday.

The latest figure comes as a 500,000-ton upgrade to the USDA’s previous forecast, issued in July. Back then, analysts expected Russia’s wheat exports to amount to 47.5 million tons, a million more than had been projected in the previous month.

At the same time, Russia’s wheat-production outlook remained unchanged at 85 million tons, while projection for volumes of carry-over stocks was reduced from 12.44 million tons to 11.44 million tons.

The wheat-export forecast for Russia’s closest competitor, the European Union, remained unchanged at 38.5 million tons.

The export outlook for Russia’s forage crop hasn’t changed, while the production forecast was downgraded to 39.4 million tons, from 42.25 million tons projected in July.

The USDA’s forecast for the harvest of corn was also reduced to 14.6 million tons from 16.3 million tons a month earlier. The estimated export volumes of corn, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 4.2 million tons.

The USDA’s projections do not cover data relating to the Crimean Peninsula, to the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, or to the Kherson or Zaporozhye regions, all former Ukrainian territories that voted in referendums to join or to rejoin Russia.

The Russian agricultural ministry expects the country’s farmers to harvest some 123 million tons of grain during the current agricultural season, including 78 million tons of wheat.

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