Several signs point to the possibility of escalation in tensions ahead of the High Holy Days which begin in the middle of September. This is because Palestinian activists continue to advance claims that a hunger strike may occur and there are also other incidents that point to dangerous developments. For instance, on Sunday a rocket was fired from the West Bank.
This is the latest of a number of small rockets being fired from the northern West Bank. The overall symbolism is important here. The terror groups want to show they can turn the northern West Bank into a kind of mini-Gaza.
Meanwhile, in the actual Gaza, Hamas and other terror groups continue to play with fire regarding tensions along the border. Qatar’s envoy recently visited the Gaza Strip and this could calm tensions. But his visit is only one factor in what Hamas may be calculating.
How does this benefit Iran’s agenda?
Iran’s agenda feeds into this. Overall the Iranian threat to try to increase tensions on multiple “fronts” against Israel is one of the hallmarks of this year’s rising conflict with the Palestinians.
It comes at an auspicious time. Not only are Rosh Hashanah and other holidays coming up in the next weeks, but there are the anniversary of the Abraham Accords and the Oslo agreement. Hamas and its backers in Iran want to send messages that undermine peace agreements and therefore the timing is clear. Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, is trying to encourage a hunger strike, which would likely lead to other provocations.
An August 31 article at MEMRI by Yigal Carmon noted that “lately there have been growing indications that a war against Israel may break out in September or October 2023.” The important analysis suggested that “the trigger may be spiraling violent clashes resulting in many casualties, or the use of new weapons leading to many fatalities on the Israeli side, in the face of which Israel will be unable to suffice with its regular counterterrorism measures.” Hezbollah and Hamas may be preparing a confrontation he argued.
Other calculations involved
There may be other calculations involved. Iran and its proxies follow Israeli media closely. They seek to find signs of weakness and internal division. They have read reports about the protests in Israel and also reports about challenges in the IDF. These kinds of reports are usually laundered or re-reported at Al-Mayadeen or Iran’s Fars News and Tasnim. For instance, on Sunday Tasnim ran an article claiming Israel is on the brink of “anarchy.” In some cases, this is done to make Israel appear to be in decline and therefore the “axis of resistance” can feel comfortable that it doesn’t need to act, it just needs to wait.
But in other contexts, Iran’s key proxies also have been meeting more regularly this year. These “tripartite” meetings of PIJ, Hamas, Hezbollah and sometimes Iran managing the meetings, are designed to unify the Iranian-backed “fronts.”
The Alma Research and Education Center also ran an article in late August suggesting Iran might trigger a new crisis. “In the past two weeks, Israeli security forces have intercepted two attempts to smuggle explosives into Israel. An Iranian fingerprint on these efforts was evident.” The article went on to note “in the first case, which was reported on August 24, Israeli Arab citizens were caught with Claymore-type explosives in the central Israeli city of Lod. Security forces identified a direct link to Hezbollah and an attempt to recruit Israeli citizens for the task of smuggling the explosives and transferring them to terror cells or terrorists in Israel.”
The overall trend appears to be that there is serious concern for escalation over the next weeks. This could come from several different types of provocations coming together at the same time, or a calculated effort by Iran to create tensions.
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