Israel, Palestinians launch new phase in West Bank arms race – analysis

After a year of unprecedented and spiraling violence, a new phase of the arms race in the West Bank is emerging amid reports this week that the Palestinian Authority security forces may be receiving more than 1,000 rifles and some armored vehicles.

Palestinian media said on Tuesday that the PA was receiving the weapons from Jordan with Israel’s approval and in Israel, a political crisis may be sparked by concerns about the weapons ending up in the hands of terrorists.  

How did we get here?

A year ago it became clear that Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other armed gangs were flush with weapons. Videos and photos showed parades in Nablus and Jenin with gunmen carrying M-4 and M-16 style rifles, often with the latest sights and grips.

Smuggling attempts also revealed new handguns being trafficked. The US Security Coordinator’s office, which has supported the Palestinian security forces for almost two decades, sought to have the PA increase its control of cities that appear to be falling like sand through the grasp of the Ramallah-based authority.

Israel’s West Bank operations against Palestinian illegal weapons

In July, Israel was forced to act, sending forces into Jenin.

Although Israel works daily to prevent attacks in the West Bank, the two-day operation was unique. The Jerusalem Post reported at the time the IDF used drones in the operation and bulldozers were also sent in. Meanwhile reports in pro-Iranian media such as Al-Mayadeen said that there was an increased attempt by Iran to unite various Palestinian groups, such as Hamas and PIJ, and provide them more weapons, including highlighting their apparent use of new improvised explosive devices.  

In early September, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would build a fence along the Jordan Valley border with Jordan. There has been increased focus and warning about Iran’s support for smuggling weapons. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant acknowledged this emerging threat in late August when he said that “it is important to understand the significant change that is taking place on the ground – it is related to Iranian funding, and to the proliferation of weapons under the Iranian directive. Iran seeks every means to harm the citizens of Israel.” The IDF said that on Sunday, “as part of the ongoing activity to thwart the smuggling of weapons into Israeli territory, IDF and Israel Police forces identified a bag containing six explosive devices in the Jordan Valley area.” 

The PA’s attempt to slow the erosion of its power in the West Bank is important. However, Iran’s octopus-like threats are still all around the region. Iran backs Hezbollah and Hezbollah was recently revealed to be constructing an airstrip in Lebanon that could be used for drones. Hamas has been increasing tensions along the Gaza border.

The anniversary of the Oslo Accords and the Disengagement have given Hamas reasons to embellish its rhetoric. In the lead-up to the holidays in Israel, it is natural that tensions will grow and be exploited by extremists. 

The story of the arms race in the West Bank therefore has increased importance. Voices on the right of the Israeli political spectrum don’t want the PA to receive more weapons. There is always a concern they could be stolen or used against Israel. Those supporters of the Oslo Accords want the PA to be strengthened.

Will the PA actually be able to train its personnel to use new M-4s and M-16 type rifles, if indeed they receive them? Will they be willing to crack down on PIJ and other groups? Or will they use the vehicles and weapons like swords around the throne, to protect what remains of the PA’s strongholds in places like Ramallah and Hebron?

The PA already appears to be losing control in Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarm. Focus on its activities remains a sensitive issue. It doesn’t want to be perceived as helping Israel, but it doesn’t want to fall from power either. At the same time, the western backers of the PA don’t want to highlight security support.

Even those like the EU that support the Palestinian police are relatively quiet these days. Gone are the old days of US General Keith Dayton and his more frequent discussions about the PA’s security goals. In a situation like this with Iran’s threats and Israel’s complex political environment, the storm over the weapons is about much more than a few dozen or a thousand rifles.  

JPost