An Israeli-Saudi Normalization Treaty will, undoubtedly, serve as a complete game-changer for the region in general, and Israel in particular.
Despite the undeclared competition for the title of the Sunni world’s hegemon, and the fact that the Al Azhar University is situated in Egypt’s capital and is the ultimate authority on all issues pertaining to Sunni Islam, Saudi Arabia remains the undisputed leader of the aforementioned realm. That is, partly owing to the fact that the two most important holy sites in Islam – Mecca and Medina – may be found within its borders, but also because of the fact that its resources allow it freedoms that Cairo could never allow itself.
Hence, a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia would indeed legitimize Israel in the eyes of a long list of Muslim countries. If, indeed, such a treaty is signed (I have clearly claimed in the past and continue to claim that it will materialize, despite the significant obstacles), it will serve as a gateway for Israel to promote unprecedented strategic, economic, and technological cooperation with many of those Muslim countries which have quietly been awaiting such an opportunity.
Yes, indeed. Despite the negative rhetoric concerning Israel in the region since its establishment in 1948, many of the Muslim countries have had their eyes, for quite some time now, on the potential dividends that normalizing relations with Israel may unveil for them, from the West in general, and the US in particular.
The agreement, once signed, is first and foremost an American and Saudi interest, with Israel having veto power over it, owing to the nature of its agreements with the US and its influence on the American legislature. Saudi Arabia, for its part, strives to leverage its status and influence in the international arena (not only in the regional one as many tend to think). For that reason, Riyadh needs regional stability and to tone down untimely disturbances, such as the Houthis in Yemen, for example, who are trained and funded by Iran.
Achievements in diplomacy
THAT IS the very reason for the signing of the recent MOU between Riyadh and Tehran, which may have somewhat confused more than one spectator, vis-à-vis Riyadh’s plans regarding normalization with Israel. Yet this momentary uncertainty was dispelled during the Saudi crown prince’s recent interview on Fox News, in which he clearly stated that normalization with Israel is closer than ever before, implying that a decision vis-à-vis the issue has already been made in Riyadh.
The Biden administration, for its part, is interested in marking a significant achievement within the framework of the Abraham Accords, largely associated with the Trump Administration. Yet more than anything else, it seeks to be the one administration to have succeeded in making the Israeli leadership concede to making far-reaching concessions to the Palestinians.
This appears to be a far more lucrative goal for the current US administration than to the Saudi leadership. Moreover, the US is driven by the fear that if it does not take its rightful place within the dynamics of the Middle East and the Gulf regions, China will undoubtedly take its place, much as it had done when it mediated the Iranian-Saudi MOU several months ago.
If Israel will agree to the concessions asked of it in return for normalization with Saudi Arabia (and I have little doubt that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is striving to do just that given his yearning to have this achievement as his legacy), Jerusalem must remember two issues: First and foremost, of course, is the obvious need to maintain its military edge, much like it has done within the framework of the Abraham Accords thus far.
In fact, in terms of defense-related military buildup and armament, which Saudi Arabia seeks within the agreement, it appears that Israel and the US have that covered in a manner that promises that Israel shall remain unharmed.
HOWEVER, SAUDI ARABIA’S demand to equip itself with nuclear enrichment capabilities for civilian purposes, is, at the very least, extremely challenging. There are certain alternatives and potential creative solutions in this field too, yet such a situation may very well place Israel in an extremely fragile position.
However, maintaining military superiority and a technological military edge is not crucial, although it is extremely important. Such a negotiation is a one-time opportunity to make Israeli consent conditional upon the cessation of the ongoing and hateful incitement still very much present in Jordanian and Palestinian curricula.
Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, the UAE has undergone tremendous changes in its curriculum, providing its younger generation with a far more tolerant and balanced syllabus.
Similarly, Qatar has undergone certain changes in recent years, and just recently it was made public that Saudi Arabia made many changes in its own schoolbooks, even though the process is incomplete. Even Egypt, which is known for its sensitivity regarding its own sovereignty and views with caution every attempt to meddle with its internal issues, has allowed the reviewing of its curriculum by international bodies, in order to moderate intolerance and biases. Consequently, the omission of many of the blunt antisemitic and anti-Israel messages which were part and parcel of its school books for decades, are now a happy byproduct.
Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, however, have remained adamant about not changing one ounce of the hate-filled messages that are inherent in their curricula. While the US and Saudi Arabia are demanding of Israel to make concessions toward the Palestinians, clear demands must also be made of the Palestinians and the Jordanians, as part of the regional package delivered within the framework of these negotiations. There will never be a better opportunity than this one.
The writer is the founder and CEO of Ruth-Strategic Consulting, a former MK for the National Unity Party, a former deputy ambassador to Cairo, and a past adviser to former president Shimon Peres.
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