An extraordinary article at the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida has claimed that Iran is seeking to create a complex deal in Syria to transfer weapons from Hezbollah to Syrian regime-backed Arab tribes and also to send arms to Moscow.
Maariv has described this as a four way deal that also threatens Israel and Ukraine. The report is concerning because the interplay between Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime has always been a complex relationship in Syria. Any movement that benefits Hezbollah or Iran-backed proxies is a threat.
The report indicates that the move by Iran and Russia could see weapons flow from Hezbollah to Arab tribes and also to Russia and that new Iranian weapons could be on their way to Hezbollah. While the movement of weapons from Hezbollah to the tribes or Russia appears counterintuitive, since Hezbollah usually stockpiles weapons, this could help Hezbollah by letting it get rid of older munitions and set itself up to get the latest weapons and also earn some gratitude from Moscow. This can also threaten the US in Syria, which gives Iran four wins: Aiding Russia, Hezbollah and threatening the US and Israel.
To understand the importance of this report, it is worth understanding the context. Historically Iran has moved weapons through Syria to Hezbollah. During the Syrian civil war this equation shifted slightly because Hezbollah intervened in Syria to help the Syrian regime. Iran wanted this outcome and helped to fuel it. Iran also moved IRGC members to Syria and helped the regime back various tribes. The goal was Iranian entrenchment. As the regime defeated the Syrian rebels with the help of Hezbollah, Hezbollah benefited and established themselves in areas in Syria, such as near Aleppo, and also near the Golan. Iran expanded its trading axis in Syria, moving weapons to Albukamal on the border with Iraq and then transferring them to T-4 base and to Damascus and Syria.
In 2017-2018 there were rumors that Iran might reduce its forces in Syria. However, although some IRGC members did depart, Iran’s proxies remained. When Russia invaded Ukraine there were also reports in Arabic media that Russia might move forces to Ukraine and that Iran could benefit in Syria by backfilling the Russian vacuum.
The report at Al-Jarida, which has reported in the past on developments in the region is titled “Iran opens Hezbollah warehouses to the tribes of eastern Syria and Moscow.” The report says that the Quds Force of the IRGC has recently learned of an agreement between Russia and Iran in which Hezbollah will “hand over a large portion of its old weapons to the Arab tribes in Syria in exchange for receiving new-generation Iranian weapons. Moscow will obtain a portion of the party’s weapons and ammunition to supply its costly war in Ukraine.”
Quds Force leader Ismail Qaani, who replaced Qasem Soleimani when Soleimani was killed by the US in 2020, was recently in Syria and Lebanon. The “source” told Al-Jarida that they had been with Qaani during his recent trip and that he has agreed to help provide new Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria, “in exchange for handing over to the party a large portion of its old weapons and ammunition to arm the Arab tribes fighting for the country.” The tribes are used by the Syrian regime to threaten the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria and to extend the regime’s influence.
The report therefore notes the issue here is also about threatening the SDF, and by implication, the US in Syria. “The source explained that Russia, which now needs large quantities of weapons that give its forces firepower, regardless of their type, for use in the Ukrainian war, will obtain a quantity of these ammunition and weapons that Hezbollah has accumulated in its warehouses since the 2006 war with Israel.” Of interest here, the source also said that the deal could also support Moscow’s efforts to reach an agreement between Turkey and Syria. Turkey occupies northern Syria. Turkey has backed the Syrian rebels. In recent years it has used the rebels to fight the SDF.
Ankara claims that the SDF are “terrorists.” Turkey has been increasingly in discussions with Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran about normalization between Turkey and the Syrian regime. However, Turkey is hesitant. Ankara wants the Syrian regime to “remove the Kurdish factions from the Turkish border beyond a border belt 45 kilometers deep inside Syrian territory,” the report says. In fact the Syrian regime has already made this pledge as part of the Adana agreement between Syria and Turkey in 1998.
“Ankara, Tehran and Moscow want to avoid a direct confrontation with Washington, each for its own reasons, and therefore everyone sees that the best solution is to move the Arab tribes to carry out the task of removing the SDF,” the report says. This indicates that the recent uprising by tribes in areas near the Euphrates, which have challenged the SDF, are in fact part of a wider effort by Iran, Turkey and Russia to stir up trouble. The tribes need weapons. They are mostly carrying AK-47s and small arms.
“Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had informed Qaani during their meeting in Lebanon that the confrontation with Israel had entered a new phase [focusing on] the conflict over energy sources in the eastern Mediterranean, and therefore the [Hezbollah] party needed qualitative weapons that could create a balance of deterrence with Israel. He added that the Iranian official pledged to reach an agreement with Moscow to allow the passage of these weapons without exposing them to the risk of being exposed to the Israeli Air Force.”
Warehouses of weapons
Let’s summarize what the report says. First, that Hezbollah would open its warehouses of weapons, which has stockpiled over the last two decades, and enable those weapons to moved to Arab tribes in Syria. This is a relatively short distance. Some of these rockets, rifles, RPGs, mines and explosives are old and decaying and it would benefit Hezbollah to get rid of them. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and masses of weapons it has illegally acquired over the decades, most of them from Iran.
Second, Russia would benefit by also taking some of the arms, apparently because it wants access to cheap ammunition and shells and rockets. It’s not clear how Moscow would transfer the weapons.
Third, as part of the deal, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Syrian regime will back Arab tribes against the US-backed SDF.
Fourth, Hezbollah will receive new shipments from Iran to fill its warehouses with more advanced weapons so that it can threaten Israel and increase its “qualitative” abilities.
Potentially this deal, if it happens or is even loosely based on reality, would benefit Hezbollah by making Moscow rely on the Iran-Hezbollah axis in Syria. In the past reports abroad suggested Moscow and Iran were not always on the same page in Syria and that Russia might reduce Iran’s role in Syria as part of its overall strategy. Now the situation may be reversed, the new report indicates.
At Al-Mayadeen media on Monday another report included quotes from Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Bassam Al-Sabbagh in which he claimed “that the process of transition to a multipolar world has begun and is irreversible, but it is difficult to predict when this will happen.” He made the comments in an interview with Sputnik. “The positive thing is that the process of transition to a multipolar world has already begun,” he said, adding, “I am sure that of this matter but it will take some time.” This indicates that the Syrian regime is also commenting on what it sees as a major shift in Syria in the balance of power in favor of Iran-Russia and against US interests.
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