Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent 2024 presidential candidate would help former President Donald Trump and hurt President Joe Biden in the general election, a recent Echelon Insights survey found.
A preview of the survey shows Trump leading Biden in a head-to-head presidential matchup nationally, 46 percent to 43 percent — a three-point lead. In that scenario, 11 percent remain unsure for whom they would vote.
However, with Kennedy running as an independent candidate, Trump’s lead over Biden expands by one point, growing to four points — 40 percent to Biden’s 36 percent. Kennedy garners 14 percent support. In that scenario, ten percent remain unsure.
NEW FINDINGS: In our latest poll, we found that an Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would INCREASE Donald Trump’s margin over Joe Biden by one point(!)
Later today, we’ll be sharing our September Omnibus poll so you can get all the details! pic.twitter.com/f5qheJSOUj
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) October 2, 2023
Another look at the survey’s cross tabs shows Kennedy ultimately taking 17 percent of Democrat-leaning voters while taking 11 percent among Republican-leaning voters. In other words, Democrats are more negatively affected by a Kennedy independent run than Republicans are.
A sneak peak of crosstabs to come… pic.twitter.com/KZeDu91d5a
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) October 2, 2023
The survey comes as Kennedy plans to exit the Democrat primary race and run for president as an independent. He is rumored to make it official in an October 9 announcement in Pennsylvania.
As Breitbart News reported:
A Kennedy campaign insider told the outlet that Kennedy “feels that the DNC is changing the rules to exclude his candidacy, so an independent run is the only way to go.”
The insider’s comments align with remarks Kennedy made publicly earlier this month. Kennedy claimed the DNC is “trying to make sure that I can’t participate at all in the political process, and so I’m going to keep all my options open,” when a South Carolina voter questioned him about the possibility of a third-party run as an independent.
Kennedy confirmed a [sic] he will make a “major announcement” in Philadelphia on October 9 in a video statement posted online Friday.
This move will surely stir up further concern for the Democrat Party, as some — including Democrat National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison — have already warned of the negative ramifications Cornel West’s third-party bid could have on Biden.
“This is not the time in order to experiment. This is not the time to play around on the margins,” he said over the summer, as others warned that West’s bid could have the same effect that Green Party candidate Jill Stein had on the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton:
In 2016, the Green Party played an outsized role in tipping the election to Donald Trump.
Now, with Cornel West as their likely nominee, they could easily do it again.
Risky business,— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) July 7, 2023
Past surveys have also indicated that West’s third-party bid will hurt Democrats, and with Kennedy slated to run as an independent, Democrats are surely sounding the alarms.
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