Will continuous spats between Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir collapse the gov’t? – analysis
The latest spat between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is indicative of the fact that the relationship between the two is not sustainable for the government unless the latter can learn to exhibit more restraint in the future.
Ben-Gvir was not present at a security meeting Netanyahu held on Sunday with multiple other officials from the security sector. Reports said that Ben-Gvir was intentionally not invited even though the meeting involved issues under his authority, but these reports were immediately dismissed by the Prime Minister’s Office.
“The prime minister held a routine meeting with the defense minister and other defense system officials from the different sectors concerning Israel,” the statement said on Sunday. “The meeting focused on Iran and didn’t touch on public security at all. Any attempt to incite between the prime minister and the national security minister and essentially blame it on the prime minister is false and intentional. The prime minister and Minister Ben-Gvir will continue to cooperate fully for the good of all Israeli citizens.”
While the PMO desperately tried to make it seem like everything was okay, however, Ben-Gvir’s side indicated otherwise. Sources close to Ben-Gvir told N12 that the decision not to invite the minister to the meeting was made after his people told Netanyahu’s people that he intended to raise the issue of security prisoners (an issue that he and the prime minister have disagreed on consistently over the past few weeks) at the meeting.
Sources also told Army Radio that they blamed the rift between the two on Netanyahu’s Chief of Staff Tzachi Braverman and that he was the one who had urged the prime minister to snub Ben-Gvir.
Troubles in the coalition
This spat is only the latest in a series of disagreements between the two in the eight months the government has been in power and even stretch as far back as before the government was sworn in.
In interviews Netanyahu gave to N12 before the government was formed, the prime minister categorically said that while Ben-Gvir would be in the coalition, he would absolutely not be a minister in his government.
In the end, he did become a minister, however. Even after Netanyahu’s categorical denial, Ben-Gvir became the national security minister in a decision that many saw as controversial considering his convictions of supporting terrorism.
Two months later, Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich clashed with the coalition over their demand that Netanyahu keep the promises made to them in the coalition agreements which included giving them extra powers in the West Bank. On Ben-Gvir’s part, he had been promised power over the Border Police’s Judea and Samaria Division. In order to pressure Netanyahu, he circulated a draft of a decision he was going to raise in the following cabinet meeting ahead of time.
A month later in March, Ben-Gvir threatened to quit the government after there was talk of the judicial reform legislation being frozen due to the great domestic unrest it had caused. In order to stop him from quitting, Netanyahu gave him a signed commitment to the formation of a national guard.
The national security minister made another threat to quit in May when he accused the government of not implementing the “fully right-wing policy” he expected in its response to rocket fire from Gaza. His Otzma Yehudit party then boycotted Knesset votes and held a faction meeting in Sderot where he dared Netanyahu to fire him in a press statement. Netanyahu’s Likud responded with a statement telling him he was welcome to resign if he was unhappy with the direction taken by the government.
Tensions rose between the two men again in September regarding multiple issues. The first came after Ben-Gvir instructed prisons to limit family visits for Palestinian security prisoners. Following prisoners’ threats to fight the new directive, the PMO claimed that no decision had been made on the matter, meaning that Ben-Gvir had not acted in coordination with Netanyahu.
The issue continued to be a matter of contention between the two as Ben-Gvir demanded that security prisoners be given less good conditions ahead of Rosh Hashanah, but Netanyahu continued to refuse.
Ben-Gvir once again expressed ire toward the prime minister during September after a report claimed that the Palestinian Authority had been given armored vehicles and weapons from Israel. The national security minister immediately demanded a clarification from Netanyahu who said the reports were false.
While Ben-Gvir said he had accepted Netanyahu’s explanation, he also said that his party would no longer be bound by coalition discipline when voting in Knesset. With the winter session beginning in a couple of weeks, this could mean that Otzma Yehudit will be voting against the government on certain issues.
With the government seeing a turbulent first eight months where Ben-Gvir is concerned, it is becoming clear that the situation cannot continue as it has. This leaves Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir with three options: Netanyahu fires Ben-Gvir, Ben-Gvir quits, or Ben-Gvir learns to work with Netanyahu and exhibit restraint.
If Netanyahu decides that his first instincts about appointing Ben-Gvir as minister were correct and fires him, the national security minister is not likely to stay in the coalition, and without Ben-Gvir’s six seats, the government will lose its majority, sending Israel to elections once more. Netanyahu is not likely to pull the plug unless he really has to, though, because polls indicate that if Israel goes to elections now, the Likud would not win, with most polls indicating that it is National Unity leader Benny Gantz who will get the most seats.
Ben-Gvir knows this too. He also knows that with the strong negative feelings between the current coalition and opposition, he is not likely to be part of a Gantz-led government. As such, he too is not likely to quit. He has also proven this with his multiple threats to quit, none of which he has followed up on.
The third option is for Ben-Gvir to learn to exercise restraint so as to minimize future disagreements with Netanyahu which is something he showed he was capable of last week. The minister had been planning a gender-segregated prayer service in Dizengoff Square as a response to fights between congregants and protesters on Yom Kippur in the same location over the issue of segregation.
Following his announcement of the service, his fellow coalition members urged him to cancel the event, which they said would be seen as a provocation. Ben-Gvir eventually listened, showing that he understood which lines he shouldn’t cross.
Israel will have to wait and see whether the discord between Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir will overcome their determination to stay in power.
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