Former President Donald Trump carries a two-point lead over President Joe Biden in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania in a hypothetical general election race, while he also maintains a towering lead over his Republican primary opponents, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
The poll, published on Wednesday, shows that 47 percent of registered voters in the Keystone State, including leaners, back Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election, while Biden garners 45 percent of support.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: PENNSYLVANIA
(R) Trump 47% (+2)
(D) Biden 45%Independents
(R) Trump 48% (+9)
(D) Biden 39%Quinnipiac (A) | 1,725 RV | 9/28-10/3https://t.co/1gtGaugag5 pic.twitter.com/SvltKa5Vqg
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 4, 2023
Another three percent would vote for another candidate, while just two percent are undecided, and one percent refused to answer. Trump holds a near-double-digit advantage among independents, taking 48 percent of the demographics’ support to Biden’s 39 percent.
“Biden vs. Trump: same as it ever was, setting up another likely bare-knuckled brawl between the two candidates in Biden’s home state,” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy in the poll’s memorandum.
The 45th president enjoys an 11-point lead among voters aged 50-64, while Biden leads by 12 with voters 65 and up. The 35-49 age demographic is almost evenly split, with Trump drawing 45 percent and Biden taking 46 percent of the demographic. Moreover, Trump is just four points back of Biden in the 18-35 age group at 43 percent and 47 percent, respectively.
In looking at the GOP primary portion of the poll, Trump continues to dominate his competition. Of those sampled, 61 percent support Trump for the GOP nomination, placing him 47 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor, Gov Ron DeSantis (R-FL), at 14 percent.
Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) is on DeSantis’s heels in third place with eight percent of support, followed by former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and former Vice President Mike Pence at four percent apiece.
“It’s certainly not enough for Trump to ‘hear footsteps,’ but Ron DeSantis may well take note that candidate Nikki Haley is closing in on second position,” Malloy said.
From there, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy registers at two percent of support, while Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Gov. Doug Burgum each pull one percent. No other candidate included in the poll secured a percent, and just three percent are undecided.
Quinnipiac polled “1,725 self-identified registered voters,” including 711 Republicans, between September 28 and October 2. The margin of error for the hypothetical presidential race sits at plus or minus 2.4 percent. The GOP primary aspect of the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent. Both data sets include leaners.
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