House Republicans must choose a nominee for Speaker of the House, a daunting predicament that resurrects haunting memories of January’s embarrassing 15-round floor fight.
Republicans recessed the House after Tuesday’s vote and plan to meet next Tuesday on Capitol Hill for a candidate forum and move the question to the floor as soon as Wednesday.
That timeline appears highly aspirational.
Jockeying began immediately after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced he would not seek to reclaim the speaker’s gavel. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), the heir apparent as Majority Leader, and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the fierce conservative and mainstay on conservative television, have declared their candidacy, but others are expected to jump in.
Here are five questions that observers of Capitol Hill — including Members of Congress — are asking about the historic race.
Can Republicans avoid a January repeat?
Let’s start with important differences between this and the January race. Members of the 117th Congress are sworn in and a rules package is adopted, which means staffs are in place and some of the work of the House can continue, including the impeachment inquiry of President Joe Biden, as Breitbart News reported.
Yet Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry’s (R-NC) gavel comes with parliamentary handcuffs, and as during the January battle, the House floor is paralyzed, as the chamber cannot consider substantive measures beyond voting for a speaker.
So while Republicans are anxious to return (or begin, if you’re a cynic) to legislating, they can continue doing some of their work.
Perhaps the greater difference in dynamics is the lack of a clear frontrunner.
McCarthy had overwhelming support from the Republican conference after last November’s elections, and his nomination by House Republicans was never truly in doubt.
This battle is not so clear cut.
Jordan and Scalise each bring a large bloc of support, but with others expected to jump into the race, no candidate is likely to receive majority support on the first ballot. Candidates are likely to withdraw and jump into the race as the rounds go by.
What remains from January is the deep divisions inside the conference, mostly between conservative hardliners and the large establishment bloc. These wounds were reopened over the past month, and achieving unity inside the conference might be more difficult now than nine months ago.
The good news for Republicans is that they will have the opportunity to work this out behind closed doors, not on television before the eyes of the world.
Perhaps the only scenario in which Republicans would move the battle to the House floor without the outcome predetermined is if weeks go by and a Hail Mary attempt is needed to jar loose any Republican recalcitrants remaining opposed to the candidate chosen by the conference.
That would be a nightmare scenario for Republicans who want to avoid another public embarrassment as well as another continuing resolution.
How long could this take?
Republicans have no time to waste.
But with tempers flaring after Tuesday’s motion to vacate, McCarthy and McHenry chose to recess for a week so members could cool off.
As heated as many members are at the “Hateful Eight” who voted to oust McCarthy, a week might not be long enough.
Yet Congress must fund the government by November 17 or we’ll have a shutdown. And Republicans still want to consider each of the 12 appropriations bills to prevent yet another continuing resolution.
That timeline would be difficult even before McCarthy’s ouster put a hold on legislative work.
Could we once again see fifteen ballots? Possibly, although Republican leaders will do all they can to ensure deliberation concludes definitively before going to the House floor.
But with the state of the race and temperature inside the conference, it could take weeks before Republicans work out their issues and the House gavels in to vote.
Will the holdouts agree to back the winner on the floor?
Nominating a candidate to send to the floor may be the easy part.
Remember, in January, after McCarthy was formally nominated by the GOP conference, twenty of those who had voted for other candidates continued their opposition on the House floor. A handful finally agreed to vote “present” to allow McCarthy to get the bare minimum support necessary to win the gavel.
And the eight who voted to wreck McCarthy’s speakership are not the only possible holdouts. Personal grudges could keep some members from backing the conference’s choice (see below), and the same divisions over spending and other issues that led to infighting during McCarthy’s tenure remain.
It is absolutely critical for Republicans to get this worked out internally before a floor vote.
Who can win in such a divided conference?
That’s the million dollar question.
Each of the two declared candidates faces challenges to getting to 218 votes.
Bad blood between Scalise and McCarthy could keep McCarthy’s most loyal allies from backing Scalise under any circumstance, and concerns about his health as he undergoes treatment for blood cancer could hurt his candidacy. Jordan faces opposition from some moderates who have loathed him since he led the mutiny against Speaker-turned-marijuana lobbyist John Boehner (R-OH)’s regime.
Other potential candidates carry baggage as well. McHenry and any other loyal McCarthy allies are unlikely to entertain candidacies. Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s (R-MN) antipathy to Donald Trump is likely disqualifying for the top spot in leadership. Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is eyeing a move up the leadership latter, but a jump over the Whip and Majority Leader positions to the speakership might be a stretch.
Rules Committee Chairman and old-school pol Tom Cole (R-OK) has been floated as a unifying candidate, although the reliable establishment vote would have work to do to win over the most conservative members of the conference and those desiring a break from the status quo. His fellow Oklahoman Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) has not formally declared but is campaigning for the spot. While not a nationally known figure, Hern has developed strong relationships as chairman of the Republican Study Committee, the largest block of conservatives on Capitol Hill, and has shrewdly avoided making enemies inside the conference.
Democrats are almost certain to follow Napoleon Bonaparte’s maxim that “when your enemy is executing a false movement, never interrupt him.” Their decision to sink McCarthy Tuesday forecasts that they will not save the day and provide any votes — or vote “present,” lowering the threshold to win — to help a Republican get the necessary majority.
What will Donald Trump do?
Trump will be in Washington Tuesday and plans to visit Capitol Hill and talk with House Republicans, he told Fox News Digital.
He says he is open to serving in a short-term capacity as speaker, for a “30, 60, or 90-day period.”
While the holder of the position technically does not have to be a member of Congress, this possibility is remote at best.
The more significant development would be a Trump endorsement of another candidate. Right now, that does not look imminent.
Betting on what Trump may or may not do is always a risky proposition. But as the far-and-away leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination and de facto leader of the party, he has the ability to shift the race if he chooses.
Follow Bradley Jaye on Twitter at @BradleyAJaye.
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