The potential normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel under US President Joe Biden’s auspices is still the talk of the town for its massive regional and international consequences.
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Many say inking such a potential normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a historic breakthrough in world politics. It could have a seismic effect, unlike anything the region has seen in years, and be even bigger than the signing of the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt more than four decades ago.
Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA) are keeping a close eye on what the outcome of a Saudi-Israeli deal could mean for them.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II is concerned that such a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel may happen at his kingdom’s expense. In his recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly, he warned against sidestepping the Palestinian issue in any peace or normalization deal.
What did the Abraham Accords do for the Palestinians?
The king emphasized the importance of the two-state solution as he has done in the past and referenced the Abraham Accords, a landmark normalization deal brokered in 2020 by the US between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. He also alluded to the fact that this agreement, reached under former President Donald Trump, didn’t accomplish anything for the Palestinians.
“The Abraham Accords started something. But it will never fulfill the aspirations that we all want unless you solve the problem for the Palestinians,” King Abdullah said in his UN speech.
He made similar remarks about the US push for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“This belief … by some in the region that you can parachute over Palestine, deal with the Arabs and work your way back—that does not work,” he said. “There’s something that Saudi Arabia wants, there’s something that the Israelis want, there’s something that the Americans want. What you have to add to that component is what do the Palestinians get out of it.”
“The king’s remarks are extremely important because he has linked a two-state solution with rights for the Palestinians. Such linkage is needed as the quest for a two-state solution over the last 30 years has simply ignored the violation of the human and civil rights of Palestinians by Israel. With hopes for a two-state solution being dashed, that issue can no longer be ignored,” Dr. Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies, Middle East Program, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Media Line.
Muasher says that a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel might have catastrophic consequences on future peace in the region.
“For those who still have hopes that both are still alive, the deal would certainly kill both,” says Dr. Muasher.
Muasher echoes the apprehension of many Jordanians, and the king himself that a possible deal could harm the kingdom.
“That has a direct impact on Jordan. If there is no two-state solution, Israel might very well attempt to solve the problem at Jordan’s expense, and that of the Palestinians, by trying to push a large number of them to Jordan.”
Oraib al-Rintawi, a Jordanian analyst and founder and director of the Amman-based Al Quds Center for Political Studies, told The Media Line that Jordan fears that the parties involved will reach final arrangements without keeping it in the loop.
“It seems that Jordan is not aware of what is happening between Saudi Arabia and Israel under the supervision of the United States. This reminds us of what happened under the Trump administration and what was called the deal of the century at the time, which was accomplished and prepared without Jordan’s knowledge.”
He explains that Jordan’s concern stems from the fact that it is kept in the dark, especially on the Palestinian issue which is vital to it.
Rintawi says that Saudi Arabia is sending “contradictory” messages regarding the Palestinians, while its foreign minister emphasized his speech at the United Nations General Assembly meetings last month, the Arab Peace Initiative and the two-state solution on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, but on the other hand, the “leaks practically talk about an economic and security agreement in exchange for the economy, and this is what Netanyahu wants.”
The Hashemite kingdom and monarch are the custodians of Jerusalem’s holy sites, and maintaining supervision over them provides King Abdullah with the political legitimacy he needs to rule.
Some in Jordan fear that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), is ambitious and that once he ascends to the throne, he will have his eyes on replacing King Abdullah as the custodian of the third most sacred place in Islam, the Haram al-Sharif, in Jerusalem, also known to Jews as the Temple Mount.
This scenario would be a blow to Amman’s status and would weaken the Jordanian Monarchy as well as risk regional security.
Rintawi says it is unlikely that this issue whets the appetite of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. But “no one knows how you can develop matters if normalization paths advance in this area.”
“Israel, which is moving towards religious and national extremism, is not about to replace one custodian with another. Israel wants to put its hand on the holy sites,” says Rintawi, adding, “Israel undermines the Hashemite custodianship of the holy sites. There are daily violations and incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque, and Israel is actually dividing Al-Aqsa Mosque spatially and temporally.”
Muasher says that despite all the leaks and speculation regarding this issue, he doesn’t think the Hashemite custodianship of holy sites in Jerusalem is about to change hands.
“I don’t think the Saudi-Israeli deal will affect Jordan’s role in any way. It is part of the Jordan-Israel treaty which Israel has to abide by. I also don’t believe the Saudis are interested. This is largely Israeli media hype,” says Muasher.
Both President Biden and MBS could pressure Israel to give “concessions” to the Palestinians, such as ending settlement expansion, and force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hand over territory to the PA from the 60% of the West Bank that it now completely controls.
However, making concessions to the Palestinians may be an impossible task for Netanyahu.
Netanyahu needs to convince his hard-right coalition to do so, and several members of his cabinet seek nothing less than the de facto annexation of the West Bank and a continued expansion of Jewish settlements there.
Saudi journalist Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed, former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper and Al-Majalla magazine, and former general manager of Al-Arabiya channel wrote several articles recently on the topic, saying that the Saudi side is preparing for the future and wants to “harness its discussions with the American side on regional issues, including support for the Palestinian solution.”
Al-Rashed, who is considered close to the Saudi royal court and to MBS, reflects in his writing what MBS is thinking.
“The Saudi path may not achieve a Palestinian state, because, like all bilateral agreements, it will be based on bilateral interests as they were,” he wrote.
According to Al-Rashed, what’s important to Riyadh are several demands from Washington, among them ways on how to “revive negotiations on a two-state solution.”
The 38-year-old MBS told Fox News that the Palestinian issue was “very important” to Riyadh in coming to an agreement with Israel, adding that “we need to solve that part.”
“We’ve got to see where we go. We hope that will reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians and get Israel as a player in the Middle East,” the crown prince continued, speaking in English. However, he wasn’t clear on what these steps could be for the Palestinians.
Al-Rashed hinted in his latest articles that Palestinians won’t have veto power on the direction of the normalization talks.
“The Saudi-Israeli bilateral negotiations will be decided by the two countries. As for the peace negotiations, based on the formula of a Palestinian state and resolving the outstanding issues, the refugees, settlements, the capital, and others, their decisions will be in the hands of the Palestinians alone in their separate course of negotiations,” wrote Al-Rashed.
While the Palestinians rejected the Abraham Accords outright, describing them as a “stab in the back,” this time may be different. Al-Rashed indicates that, unlike in previous instances, the Palestinian Authority has changed its approach and has decided to take part in normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
“The PA was supposed to benefit from other previous Arab bilateral negotiations with Israel, to support its positions, but it did not do so. … Perhaps these paths will empower the Palestinians economically, enhance their entry into Arab markets, work to save the deteriorating living situation and push towards a two-state solution,” said Al-Rashed.
Former Palestinian minister Nabil Amer told The Media Line that it’s too early to draw any conclusions on the Saudi position.
Amer said that Saudi officials have made it clear in face-to-face meetings in Riyadh with a Palestinian delegation that the Arab Peace Initiative and the two-state solution are at the heart of the current normalization talks.
“The kingdom realizes the importance of the Palestinian issue and does not see it as a burden, and everything Saudi Arabia does is proof of that,” said Amer.
The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Saudi Arabia at the Arab League Summit in Beirut called for full normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel in exchange for Israel’s withdrawal from territories it occupied during the 1967 Six-Day War.
Amer added, “Saudi policy towards the Palestinians, from the beginning of their catastrophe until the beginning of talks about normalization with Israel, was an objective policy dictated by the political and moral interests of the big state.”
Adel Shadeed, a Palestinian political analyst based in the West Bank, sees things differently. He told The Media Line that “it is clear that Saudi Arabia is not serious about raising the Palestinian issue and that Saudi interests are the priority; they are the ones that determine the course of the normalization negotiations.”
At first, the PA leadership had high hopes for what the Saudis could do for them, but according to top officials in Ramallah, they are “highly disappointed, and have drastically lowered their demands.”
Shadeed says that the PA is committing a big mistake with their approach.
“Regarding the issue of Palestinian demands, I believe that the mistake committed by the Palestinian leadership is not related to the high ceiling of demands, but, rather, that ‘we are not obligated and do not need to be part of this issue.’ Therefore, it is not being used to legitimize and pass the issue of normalization,” said Shadeed.
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