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Tehran predicts Russia-China-Iran triangle of power – analysis

Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing met Monday with Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber in Shanghai. Mokhber was in Shanghai to participate in the 6th China International Import Expo. Media in Beijing noted that Zhang Guoqing is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee. Iran views this trip as important as it is trying to circumvent the West via closer ties and trade with China. 

The meeting comes as Iran’s President is traveling to Central Asia. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived at Dushanbe International Airport on Wednesday, according to the Iranian news agency Fars. He is there for a one-day visit and will meet key officials.

Iran opened a drone factory in Tajikistan in May 2022. Iran supplies Russia with kamikaze drones, but reports have not said that these are the same drones made in Tajikistan. In 2019 Iran’s then-president Hassan Rouhani attended a meeting in the Tajikistanian capital of Dushanbe for the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). 

In addition, Iran’s Major General Yahya Safavi, who is a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gave a speech in Rasht in Iran about new Iranian investment in naval power, as well as air power.

“The Sea of ​​Oman and the Persian Gulf, which is a branch of the Indian Ocean, connect a new maritime continental territory with the participation of Asian powers such as China, India, and Russia, as well as the formation of Asian and Eurasian powers in the cooperation structure of Shanghai [SCO] and BRICS,” he said, according to Iran’s pro-regime Tasnim News.  

 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference concluding his appearance at the United Nations General Assembly, in New York City, U.S., September 20, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/SHANNON STAPLETON)
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference concluding his appearance at the United Nations General Assembly, in New York City, U.S., September 20, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/SHANNON STAPLETON)

What is Iran’s goal in strengthening its relationship with China and Russia?

The report in Iran characterized Safavi as spelling out a “triangle” of Iran-Russia-China in which they will confront the US. He referenced confronting the US and its allies in the maritime domain. Iran has a small navy, but it has invested in drones and missiles, including naval-based missiles.

Of more interest, the Iranian military fixture sketched out a “China Corridor,” that stretches from China via Iran to Iraq, Syria, and the Mediterranean “in 3 directions, Kermanshah to Baghdad, Khorramshahr to Basra and Kurdistan to Sulaymaniyah,” he said. He mentioned the historic city of Sarakhs, which was once a stopping point on the Silk Road. He discussed this in the context of linking an east-west route and a north-south route. Iran is allocating billions of dollars to build this infrastructure.

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“The increasing development of technology today has led the military forces to strengthen their technological capabilities,” he added. 

At the same time, the head of the IRGC’s naval arm also praised new technologies for the navy that will be able to threaten other countries. In addition, Iran’s Tasnim News praised new satellite capabilities.

Iran is clearly focusing east on China and Asia as Israel fights in Gaza. Iran wants to come out of the next few years with newfound power in the region. Hamas is a pawn of Iran, and the larger picture is Iran’s desire to use the east-west trade route to dominate Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as to increase its maritime power, with the support of China and Russia. This is part of the new world order that Iran wants to achieve with its new partners.

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