As Israel’s offensive against Gaza continues, there is increasing US pressure on Israel to ensure fewer civilian casualties in the fighting and agree to a humanitarian pause that would also possibly enable the release of 239 hostages, most of them Israelis.
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On Sunday, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke on the CBS News program Face the Nation and expressed US President Joe Biden’s concerns regarding the mounting civilian casualties in Gaza. Sullivan also said there was concern about the developments surrounding Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, on which the Israeli military is zeroing in based on claims that Hamas has its key command center under the hospital grounds.
“The United States does not want to see firefights in hospitals where innocent people, patients receiving medical care, are caught in the crossfire. And we’ve had active consultations with the Israel Defense Forces on this,” Sullivan said.
The war began five weeks ago with a surprise offensive by the Hamas terrorist organization in which approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed and thousands more were wounded. Since then, the total number of Israelis killed has risen to around 1,280, and the number of wounded stands at about 7,300. According to the Health Ministry of the Hamas-run government in Gaza, 11,180 Palestinians have been killed and 28,200 have been injured.
Is Biden getting impatient with Netanyahu?
Last week, President Biden already indicated he was getting impatient with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He told reporters that “it’s taken a little longer than [he] had hoped” to persuade Netanyahu to agree to a humanitarian pause that was more than a few hours. For now, the Israeli military has been giving Gaza residents safe passage to the southern part of the territory for four hours a day, during which they are guaranteed there is no fire in those areas.
Netanyahu has repeatedly said there will be no ceasefire without the release of hostages. There have been reports of negotiations progressing towards a deal with Hamas on their release, however, there has not been any official confirmation or announcement.
When the war broke out, the US administration was quick to adopt a very pro-Israeli stance. President Biden arrived in Israel as the country was still in a whirlwind of shock at the magnitude of Hamas’ attack. The US leader vowed to support Israel with funding, military aid, and diplomatic support as the Jewish State pledged to topple Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip.
As time goes by and the death toll in Gaza mounts, so does internal pressure on the US president.
What polls say about Americans’ support for Israel, Biden and the war in Gaza
According to several polls conducted in the US in recent days, nearly half of the Democratic Party disapproves of the Democratic president’s handling of the war. President Biden finds himself managing a delicate balancing act. He is caught between the support he has promised Israel, one which he appears personally invested in maintaining through his heartfelt speeches and allocation of unprecedented military aid and funds, and his political interests which may clash with that support.
President Biden faces a reelection campaign in just under a year but now with negative poll numbers.
“Within the Democratic Party, especially those under 45 years old, there is a significant drop in support for Biden’s pro-Israel stance,” said Alon Pinkas, who served as Israel’s former consul general in New York as well as a policy adviser for former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and political adviser to the late Israeli President Shimon Peres. “For now, this doesn’t have an impact on his actions, because the election is still a year away. But this has an accumulative effect, and there are enough political advisers already telling him he has a very short time to change the dynamic,” Pinkas told The Media Line.
President Biden faces increasing opposition from the progressive wing of his own Democratic Party. Progressive democrats have been vocal opponents of the pro-Israeli stance that the White House has chosen.
“In the past, it was believed that in order to win an election, the candidate needs to move to the center,” said Prof. Menahem Blondheim, an expert in American history from the College of Management and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “The last election campaigns proved otherwise, that the fringes have become increasingly important both for Republicans and Democrats,” he told The Media Line.
According to Blondheim, this time the number of undecided voters that will likely call the vote are largely in the center, holding a position against Hamas and in favor of Israel.
“The progressives are on the opposite of this trend, and Biden will have no choice but to differentiate himself from them,” Blondheim told The Media Line. “Aligning himself with the progressives will be very problematic for Biden.”
Both the Israeli prime minister and the American president had a tumultuous year. When Netanyahu took office for his sixth term late last year, he began the promotion of a contentious judicial reform that put him at odds with the White House. It was perhaps the lowest point of the Israeli-US relationship, which has since been forgotten with the steadfast support of President Biden in the wake of the Hamas attack.
But Netanyahu now again seems to be adopting a contrarian position, shooting down any room for compromise.
With the US president looking at his domestic situation, there could be a point where he will reconsider his policy.
“Israel is making it easier for Biden because it has been refusing any idea or proposal by the US,” Pinkas said. “This includes the call for humanitarian pauses, local ceasefires, and also the idea of a multinational force that would include the Palestinian Authority to control Gaza after Hamas. They have also asked Israel to try and de-escalate the tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and this is also not happening.
“Not everything is Israel’s fault though. But gradually, there is a greater gap between the American and Israeli interests,” Pinkas added.
Netanyahu is also walking a tightrope. His favorability among the Israeli public is plummeting. Viewed by many as responsible for Hamas’ strengthening and for the blunder that led to the surprise offensive by the terrorist organization, Netanyahu is the target of intense criticism. The response by his government to the plight of tens of thousands of displaced Israelis, the perceived weak response to Hezbollah provocations on Israel’s northern borders, and his appearance as indifferent to the suffering of the victims as he postponed meeting relatives of those killed and kidnapped have all contributed to his political slump.
Days into the war, Netanyahu was forced to listen to calls to form an emergency government that would include elements of the opposition. Benny Gantz, a former defense minister and prominent member of the opposition to Netanyahu, agreed to enter the government and join a newly formed war cabinet. Also, with him came other members of the opposition, including former military Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
Netanyahu now finds himself in a minority in the war cabinet, a minority that could stop him from further pushing back on US requests.
“If Netanyahu will widen the rift with the US out of his political survival interests, it could very well be that other members of the cabinet will stop him,” said Pinkas.
The White House is well aware of Netanyahu’s precarious political position in Israel.
“Biden understands that Netanyahu may have run his course and could become a lame duck politically,” said Blondheim. “This could give Biden the power to support Israel while still showing token resistance to Netanyahu’s policies.”
For both leaders, it is a lot, if not all, about optics.
In 1992, one of the campaign slogans of former President Bill Clinton was “It’s the economy, stupid.” In the wake of US involvement in the war in Iraq and the following recession, public opinion turned sharply on then-President George H.W. Bush. Clinton’s advisers understood then what is often viewed now as a commonality. Americans do not vote on foreign affairs but rather on the state of their economy.
But Israel appears to be the exception.
Netanyahu will be needing more of the American president’s support
“It is more of an emotional issue,” Blondheim explained. “There is a deeper bond, based on shared values and commonalities between religions that makes Israel more of a domestic issue rather than one of foreign affairs.
Also, Blondheim adds, the Jewish population in the US still has a decisive voice in the political arena. Jews make up the largest religious minority in the US and have a traditionally high presence in domestic politics.
As the fighting goes on, Netanyahu will be needing more of the American president’s support and not less of it.
President Biden, who has signaled that he is losing patience with Netanyahu’s lack of willingness to compromise, has many options to strong-arm Israel.
The US has guaranteed to continuously replenish Israel’s supply of air-defense rockets, a critical component of Israel’s defense against Hamas and Hezbollah. The US has also mobilized forces and aircraft carriers to the region along with approving a massive $14 billion military aid package to Israel. These are in addition to the annual aid already granted to the Jewish state.
“Israel’s dependency on the US ranges from great to absolute,” said Pinkas. “If Israel continues to say no after everything the US has done for it since the beginning of the war, we could see them take action.”
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