On July 17, 2023, two simultaneous blasts tore through the Kerch Bridge, temporarily disabling the only overland link between Russia and occupied Crimea and denting a prestige project for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The one ton of explosive was delivered by a pair of uncrewed surface vessels named “Sea Baby,” developed within Ukraine and operated by remote control. In other instances, “sea drones” were used to ram Russian warships in the port of Sevastopol, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and to strike a Russian oil tanker.
The spectacular pace of innovation currently underway globally around marine autonomous vehicles will reshape the balance of power in naval warfare. While in Ukraine this technology is being deployed to resist an invading nation, elsewhere it is likely that rogue states will benefit. As a deep technology investor with extensive defense technology experience, I have an interest in many of the subsystems discussed below. But I believe quantum and AI technologies will have a considerable impact on the future of war and, as is clear in Ukraine, on the development of autonomous naval systems.
In 2017, the United States commissioned its first underwater drone squadron and according to a deputy chief of naval operations, “the navy is confident unmanned technology will be central to nearly everything it does in the future.” The United Kingdom is also developing “cutting-edge technologies … alongside conventional Royal Navy platforms, to accelerate and de-risk Un-crewed Autonomous Vehicle opportunities.” However, it is only a matter of time before state adversaries and hostile non-state actors catch up and, in the process, transform the naval balance, particularly in the context of asymmetry. Advances in autonomous technologies will democratize access to core naval capabilities, so that nations and groups without sizeable navies can fast become contenders at sea. At the same time, significant state adversaries to the United States and allies including “China, Russia, Iran and North Korea [will] expand [their] range of strategic capabilities that emanate from all domains.”
Transformative Technological Shift
The central role of drone warfare in Ukraine has turbo-charged the marine autonomous vehicle effort. The conflict has underlined the value of unmanned systems in optimizing intelligence gathering and decision-making on the battlefield, where drones perform tasks that may be too risky or resource-intensive for manned alternatives. The rise of inexpensive drone technology has been accompanied by innovation in communication and control systems, allowing for reliable and secure command-and-control of unmanned vehicles, even in challenging environments.
Alongside this military proving ground, work undertaken in the civilian sector, including in fields like robotics, AI, and sensor technology, has pushed forward the underlying technologies that facilitate marine autonomous vehicles.
Consequently, these platforms are becoming increasingly autonomous and capable of complex tasks without human intervention. These include autonomous navigation, dynamic obstacle circumvention, and adaptive decision-making. They are also being designed to operate in swarms, enabling coordinated missions with multiple vehicles, like the one at Sevastopol where at least seven Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels breached the harbor’s defenses. Furthermore, hybrid propulsion systems combine electric and conventional power to extend the operational range and endurance of marine autonomous vehicles.
In parallel, there have been major advancements with marine sensors, as sophisticated sonar systems now offer heightened resolution imaging and augmented target detection capabilities.
These innovations combine to improve situational awareness in complex and contested underwater environments, to reduce risk to humans in relation to dangerous tasks like mine clearance and submarine tracking, and to extend periods of operation and therefore of surveillance, which will be game-changing for border security, anti-submarine operations, and the protection of critical infrastructure.
Quantum Leap
On top of this, a seismic leap is on its way through the application of quantum technology or advanced AI to marine autonomous vehicles and marine sensors.
Quantum encryption protocols will make communications virtually unbreakable, a critical advantage in military operations. Quantum clocks will provide fully autonomous modes of global positioning, while AI will integrate data from multiple sensors, providing highly granular views of the maritime environment. “Sea drones” will make complex decisions in real-time, adapting to changing threats and mission objectives without human intervention. Through AI algorithms with machine learning capabilities, marine autonomous vehicles will reason from experience, continuously improving their performance and response strategies. They will rapidly identify potential threats, such as adversary vessels or underwater mines, and execute appropriate response actions, including evasion or neutralization.
American and British companies are already actively building and trialing quantum sensors, quantum radio frequency capabilities, and quantum clocks, which are integral to autonomous global positioning.
Naval Alternative
For nations lacking a formidable navy, as with Ukraine, autonomous vehicle technology heralds a unique opportunity to recalibrate the strategic balance. It can perform core tasks like surveillance, mine clearance, and anti-submarine warfare without the need for a large fleet of manned vessels. Deployable in high-risk zones with minimal human intervention, marine autonomous vehicles can conduct missions far from shore, significantly extending the range of a country’s maritime defense capabilities and reducing human exposure to risk. Closer to home, ports and harbors can be secured against naval mines.
Some of the most positive implications for these technologies are in the realm of environmental protection and research, particularly for coastal nations or non-governmental organizations. Marine autonomous vehicles equipped with advanced sensors can contribute to a better understanding of marine environments, aiding in conservation efforts and ensuring sustainable use of marine resources.
Indeed, Iran has showcased indigenous underwater technologies, including autonomous underwater vehicles, for tasks like mapping and environmental monitoring. Saudi Arabia plans to build a fleet of autonomous underwater and surface vehicles, with solar panels enabling them to spend months at sea unattended, in order to support research in the Red Sea. China already uses autonomous underwater vehicles for marine scientific research in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. In January 2023, it launched “the first giant AI-controlled research drone carrier,” which navigated autonomously for twelve consecutive hours. The “drone ship” itself is designed as a platform for other unmanned air, sea, and submarine vehicles. Chinese state media explained that its purpose was to “undertake marine scientific research and other observations,” but the extent of its military applications remain unclear.
Implications for Rogue States and Non-State Actors
Ultimately, this technology means that hostile states and non-state actors may soon be able to conduct sophisticated maritime operations even without a traditional naval force. The marine autonomous arsenal enables asymmetric warfare with newfound sophistication, bringing stealth and clandestine operations within closer reach.
Marine autonomous vehicles can operate far from the coast, helping rogue states to project influence beyond their immediate territorial waters. They can be used to exert control over critical sea lanes and chokepoints, influencing the flow of maritime traffic and empowering criminal actors to engage in illicit activities like smuggling or piracy with greater sophistication and effectiveness.
Unmanned autonomous vessels promise to be more cost-effective than maintaining a large conventional navy, allowing rogue states to allocate resources to other military priorities and significantly lowering the barriers to entry for non-state actors. Given the absence of human personnel, their use will also make it harder to attribute hostile activity or attacks.
They can also boost the conventional capabilities of aspiring naval powers. North Korea, which over recent years has sought to develop its navy and possibly to engage in joint naval exercises with Russia and China, this year tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone system “intended to make sneak attacks in enemy waters and destroy naval striker groups and major operational ports,” according to state media.
For its part, Russia has rolled out deep sea autonomous vehicles, including Vityaz-D, the world’s first fully autonomous underwater vehicle to reach the ocean’s deepest point, though it seems much of this effort has been focused on scientific exploration. It has also of course developed Poseidon, an autonomous nuclear-armed underwater torpedo, which “will have no human on board to make critical decisions after it has been launched.”
Tomorrow’s Threats in View
The challenge to traditional naval supremacy has arrived. Driven by the seismic shift in drone technology as well as civilian innovation in robotics and AI, autonomous naval systems stand poised to redefine the contours of maritime defense on a global scale. Marine autonomous vehicles equipped with quantum technologies will one day undertake previously unimaginable naval missions, from high-risk intelligence gathering to precision strikes. This will introduce new complexities into maritime security operations against existing naval powers. But it will also challenge the historical dominance of traditional naval forces altogether, potentially reducing their effectiveness in dealing with unconventional adversaries.
Existing maritime defense capabilities should be urgently reassessed. It is important for government to invest in more state-of-the-art sensors, leveraging cutting-edge quantum and AI technology, and creating a ring of steel encircling the United States and key strategic allies like the United Kingdom and Australia. These sensors could allow for continuous surveillance and monitoring and deliver real-time awareness, which will translate into faster response times and enhanced threat detection capabilities. In addition, anti-submarine warfare capabilities should be strengthened to equip the collective force with the capacity to detect and neutralize potential threats from autonomous underwater vehicles. This involves both technologies which detect and those which destroy, in the same way that satellites have been left vulnerable to new capabilities in space.
The shape of tomorrow’s threats at sea are coming into focus. With a reduced comparative cost and a diminished human footprint, marine autonomous vehicles will inexorably shape the future of naval warfare and maritime security. The development of a strong, clear-eyed response strategy, and the engagement of private capital alongside government resources, will communicate a resolute message to adversaries and strengthen deterrence.
John James is the co-founder and managing director of BOKA Group, a U.S.-based investor focused on the national security deep tech sector, including cutting-edge dual-use technologies. Working closely with government, it is particularly focused on the development of technology as it adapts to changing geopolitical and warfighting environments.
Image: U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist America A. Henry
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