Former President Donald Trump has a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in the key swing state of Michigan, the latest CNN Poll found.
The survey showed Trump leading Biden nationally by eight points, 39 percent to Biden’s 31 percent, in a race that includes independent candidates. That gap, however, only grows in individual states such as Michigan, where Trump is now leading Biden by ten points — 50 percent to Biden’s 40 percent. Another ten percent said they would not support either candidate.
Further, the survey showed Trump leading Biden by five points in Georgia — 49 percent to 44 percent.
Per CNN:
Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.
For a greater perspective, Trump won Michigan in 2016 by .3 percent, but he lost the state in 2020 by 2.8 percent:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: CNN/SSRS
MICHIGAN
Trump: 50% (+10)
Biden: 40%
—
Trump: 39% (+8)
Biden: 31%
RFK Jr: 20%
West: 6%
—
GEORGIA
Trump: 49% (+5)
Biden: 44%
—
Trump: 42% (+8)
Biden: 34%
RFK Jr: 15%
West: 6%
—
1,197 RV (MI) | 1,068 RV (GA) | 11/29-12/7 https://t.co/mUmHTAGlC8 pic.twitter.com/rrwzQc2tdT— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 11, 2023
The Michigan poll was taken from November 29 to December 6 among 1,197 registered voters, and the Georgia poll was taken from November 30 to December 7 among 1,068 registered voters. Trump’s lead in Michigan is outside of the survey’s +/- 3.4 percent margin of error, and it is outside Georgia’s +/- 3.3 percent margin of error as well.
It coincides with several other surveys showing Trump leading Biden in key swing states. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released in November, for example, showed Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and tying in Michigan:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Bloomberg/Morning Consult
GEORGIA
Trump 48% (+7)
Biden 41%ARIZONA
Trump 46% (+4)
Biden 42%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
NEVADA
Trump 46% (+3)
Biden 43%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48% (+9)
Biden 39%
.
MICHIGAN
Biden… pic.twitter.com/BXZfA7XDdp— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 9, 2023
Similarly, a New York Times/Siena poll released that same month showed Trump leading Biden in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan. In Michigan specifically, Trump led Biden by five points in that particular survey.
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