January 16, 2024

On July 25, 2023, Fox News Host Sean Hannity hosted a town hall meeting with Democrat presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. A seven-minute segment of that event primarily concerned the war in Ukraine and was entitled “America Wants War with Russia.” Being familiar with one of the worst foreign policy decisions in the post-World War II era, I listened intently to what the liberal presidential candidate had to say on the subject. He was quite knowledgeable and, in general, seemed to grasp the motivating imperatives which precipitated this mistake. In contrast, the “conservative” Hannity appeared clueless and maybe disingenuous. Six months later, as the endless war continues endless, that town hall remains relevant.

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Kennedy focused on two specific items. One, the understanding that existed between Russia, the United States, and Germany regarding the reunification of Germany in 1989-91, and, two, the Minsk Accords. Kennedy’s main thrust was that the war in Ukraine was driven by American desire for a manageable war with Russia.

Kennedy summarized Germany’s reunification and America’s failure to live up to promises made to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet head of state. The promise was that NATO wouldn’t expand beyond Germany’s eastern border. Our leaders later took the position that America’s and Germany’s oral promises had no legal basis. This is not sustainable in diplomatic understandings be they made in secret or announced publicly.

It’s just common sense that, if diplomats cannot rely on fellow diplomats’ representation, countries will struggle to negotiate to avoid war. Trusting America and Germany, the Soviet Union removed 300,000+ troops and thousands of heavy weapons. That was a good thing but, in contrast, the United States broke its word. By doing so, we gave Gorbachev’s successors good reason not to ever trust us again. There has existed an unnecessary estrangement ever since and this feeling is helping to drive us towards war.

Image: Burning Russian tank in Ukraine. YouTube screen grab.

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The Minsk Agreements were an effort to establish peace in Ukraine and stop the fighting between ethnic Russians and Ukrainian civilians that started immediately after the 2014 coup. Washington represented the coup as a revolution despite it being orchestrated by Victoria Nuland, Obama’s Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs. George Friedman of STRATFOR declared this action was a coup.

While Kennedy’s summary contained errors in the dates of the Minsk agreements, he did get the narrative right. The first Minsk accord failed and led to the second. Russia guaranteed peace on behalf of the ethnic Russian eastern region of Ukraine called the Donbas, and the West, led by America, guaranteed it for the Ukrainian government.

Ultimately, the Donbas voted to leave Ukraine and declared for Russian sovereignty. The purpose was to have Russia send troops to their rescue. This was because the Ukrainian government had killed around 14,000 ethnic Russians in the Donbas region since 2015. In February 2022, the Kiev Government dramatically increased bombardment of the Donbas. This resulted in the 2/24/22 Russian invasion ordered by Putin.

Under Minsk 2, the West was to have restrained the Kiev government from such actions. Russia/Putin was to do likewise. The West dishonored their agreement. This was a direct provocation, as Kennedy argued, leading to war.

In a book on the Ukraine war written by Swiss intelligence officer Colonel Jacques Baud, “Operation Z,” he covers the massive uptick in shelling of the Donbas (pgs. 175-177). On pages 182-84, he lays out damning evidence that supports Kennedy’s main thrust that America and her allies drove Russia to invade.

On March 18, 2019, President Zelensky’s advisor and spokesman, Oleksei Arestovich, said in an interview on the Ukrainian channel Apostrof TV: