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Iran was active in the region over the weekend, continuing to increase its threats to Israel and US forces. For instance, Iranian proxies in Iraq used ballistic missiles and rockets to attack Asad base in Iraq, where US forces are stationed. A number of US personnel were lightly injured as a result of the attack.
US Central Command said, “At approximately 6:30 p.m. (Baghdad time) on Jan. 20, multiple ballistic missiles and rockets were launched by Iranian-backed militants in Western Iraq targeting al-Assad Airbase. Most of the missiles were intercepted by the base’s air defense systems, while others struck the base. Damage assessments are ongoing. A number of US personnel are undergoing evaluation for traumatic brain injuries. At least one Iraqi service member was wounded.
January 20 was a busy day for Iran in the region because it also suffered losses in Syria, and at the same time, it was plotting and carrying out attacks in Iraq. Several members of the Iranian IRGC were killed in Damascus.
It’s not the only recent loss for Iran in Syria. In December, Iran’s Razi Mousavi, a senior IRGC member, was also killed in Syria. Ayatollah Khamenei led prayers at his funeral.
Iran also suffered a setback in Yemen. The Iranian-backed Houthis continue to target ships. However, on January 20, “US Central Command forces conducted airstrikes against a Houthi anti-ship missile that was aimed into the Gulf of Aden and was prepared to launch. US forces determined the missile presented a threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region and subsequently struck and destroyed the missile in self-defense. This action will make international waters safer and more secure for US Navy and merchant vessels,” US Central Command said.
On January 20, Iranian-backed Hezbollah also continued to threaten Israel. Israeli fighter jets “struck terrorist infrastructure, an observation post, and a launch post belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization in the area of Al-Adisa in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, overnight, IDF tanks fired in order to remove a threat in the area of Har Dov,” the IDF said on Saturday.
Iran must consider its next steps
Examining all these incidents, the Iranian leadership must weigh their next steps in the region. They are now trying to manage a very large and complex series of conflicts. This includes Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This is a major challenge for them. Never has Iran had to manage so many active fronts. That’s not to say Iran doesn’t have decades of experience building up proxies in all these places.
Iran has invested heavily in all these arenas. When the arenas are in flames, Iran’s resources must be taxed in dealing with them all. Can Iran maintain the same tempo in each arena? That is a key question. Iranian media is signaling that Iran is focused on the West Bank, particularly Jenin and other areas where Palestinian Islamic Jihad operates.
Iran has other interests as well. It recently launched a satellite into orbit. Iran’s media also focuses on internal disagreements in Israel among the wartime cabinet. Tehran is also closely monitoring Hamas’s recent demands to see if it can keep Hamas in power in Gaza. This illustrates that Iran is weighing the next step. Escalation in Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea, in which Iran may suffer more losses than it can easily replace, could be a challenge for Iran in the long term.
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